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Comments & Briefs

XM Research - 8 hours ago

Daily Comment – Dollar gaps down as Trump seems to be losing Iowa

Nonfarm payrolls slow to the smallest gain since Dec 2020Dollar opens Monday with negative gap on US election pollWhat will Fed officials decide just after the election?RBA gets the ball rolling tonight; expected to stand patDollar brushes off very weak nonfarm payrollsThe dollar finished Friday’s session up against most of its major peers, despite nonfarm payrolls slowing to 12k last month, the smallest gain since December 2020.Despite the surprisingly low number, the market brushed off the r
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – Volatility returns with a vengeance ahead of key US events

Month-end pushes stock indices and gold in the redMarket angst could continue going into Tuesday’s US electionFocus today is on the US labour market dataDollar fails to benefit against the euro and the yenMonth-end pushes stock indices in the redThe recent, relatively quiet, market sessions were interrupted yesterday, with a strong correction recorded in both equities and gold.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Quick Brief – PCE inflation adds to strong US data run ahead of Fed decision

Core PCE price index stays unchanged at 2.7% y/yPersonal consumption accelerates to 0.5% m/mBut US dollar stays on the backfoot Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.1% y/y in September, but the underlying measure was unchanged at 2.7% y/y. The decline in the headline figure was in line with expectations but core PCE was forecast to have moderated to 2.6% y/y.The data underscores worries that underlying price pressures are proving to be stick
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Quick Brief - Oil prices rebound after unexpected drop in gasoline stockpiles

US gasoline stockpiles drop to a two-year lowOPEC+ could delay a planned production increaseChinese manufacturing PMI also a helping handOil prices rebounded on Thursday, perhaps buoyed by demand optimism in the US after gasoline stockpiles dropped unexpectedly to a two-year low last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).What may have also encouraged investors to buy more oil were reports that OPEC and its major allies, known as the OPEC+ group, could delay a planned pro
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar slips amid stronger yen and euro, data barrage continues

Yen up after Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expectedEuro climbs on stronger German GDP and inflationDollar choppy after mixed US data, focus turns to PCE inflationStocks struggle on earnings outlook worriesYen gets unexpected boostThe yen firmed up on Thursday after the Bank of Japan struck a somewhat more hawkish-than-expected tone as it kept rates on hold but signalled it remains on track to raise rates further.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Quick Brief - US Q3 GDP disappoints but ADP employment beat lifts dollar

US economy grows by 2.8% in Q3 versus 3.0% expectedADP employment points to strong month for jobs in OctoberUS dollar heads north but more tests on the wayThe US GDP report kicked off the run of crucial data for the next three days, paving the way for next week’s policy meeting by the Federal Reserve. GDP growth came in slightly below expectations in the third quarter, printing at 2.8% against forecasts of 3.0%.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Quick Brief – Eurozone GDP exceeds expectations

Eurozone GDP expands by 0.4%Germany posts 0.2% growthEuro/dollar shows signs of upside recoveryThe Eurozone economy expanded more rapidly than anticipated in the previous quarter; however, the outlook remains subdued due to the potential for excessive tariffs from a Trump presidency and the escalation of trade tensions with China.The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3, marking the highest growth rate in two years, subsequent to a 0.2% increase in Q2 and surpassing projections of 0.2%.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Daily Comment – Wall Street lifted by earnings as election jitters boost gold

US dollar and gold remain elevated as markets bet on Trump winBut Nasdaq hits record amid optimism about tech earningsSlew of data awaited out of the US and Eurozone, UK budget also eyedUS election angst still driving sentiment  Growing anxiety about the US presidential election continued to set the market mood on Wednesday, with Republican candidate Donald Trump extending his gains in the polls.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar maintains gains amidst fragile market conditions

Markets prepare for a 10-day long rollercoaster rideFocus today on earnings but key US data in sightGold and bitcoin rally, oil suffers, and 10-year US yield reaches 4.3%Yen suffering might linger as party negotiations continueImportant data week, Alphabet reports todayMarket participants are gradually preparing for an action-packed week, with Friday’s US jobs report being the key event, that also includes some major earnings releases.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Oil slumps after Israel’s attack; yen slips on Japan election shock

Oil and gold slide as Israel shows restraint in retaliatory strike on IranYen under pressure after LDP party loses majority in snap electionTrump poll boost keeps dollar firm as crucial US data week awaitsIsrael strikes back at Iran, but relief on measured attackOil prices tumbled as trading got underway on Monday, opening with a gap down as investors responded to Israel’s retaliatory attack against Iran on Saturday.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Tensions remain high in equities

Strong US data is not welcomed by equitiesBusy calendar today but markets are already focusing on next weekJapan holds election on Sunday; the outcome could surpriseBoJ and yen could suffer from a hung parliament Data reconfirm the strength of the US economyYesterday’s PMI surveys release was a stark reminder that the US presidential election is not the sole market-moving factor.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure amid US election jitters, dollar extends gains

Reduced Fed rate cut bets and growing odds of a Trump win push up yieldsWall Street slips; gold also takes a hit, but only temporarilyDollar climbs to 3-month high, yen and euro struggleWall Street headed for weekly lossesThe rally on Wall Street came to an abrupt end this week as uncertainty about the looming US presidential election as well as about the pace of Fed rate cuts undermined confidence in risk assets.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – BoC delivers rate cut, points to further easing

BoC cuts rates by 50bps, keeps door open to further movesMarket fully prices in a 25bps rate cut in DecemberLoonie remains under pressure against the dollarThe Bank of Canada confirmed market expectations by delivering a 50bps rate cut at today’s meeting. Despite certain market participants pointing to a smaller move on the back of decent jobs and growth figures, the recent weak inflation report and the bearish move in oil seem to have tipped the scale in favour of a more aggressive rate cut.T
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar, gold and US yields continue to rise

Euro is under pressure again as ECB dovish commentary lingersGold makes a new all-time high despite the 10-year US yield riseUS equities trade with low conviction ahead of Tesla earningsBoC to announce another rate cut, loonie could sufferEuro remains on the back footThe euro is desperately trying to show some signs of life and recover against both the US dollar and the pound.
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Demand for safe assets lingers

Dollar, gold and US yields are on the riseUS presidential election risks start to affect market sentimentFocus today on central bank speakers at the IMF annual meetingBRICS summit could generate headlines, particularly for the Middle EastUS presidential election is firmly on the market's radarThe US dollar continues to enjoy strong demand, outperforming its main counterparts.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Gold and dollar edge up as markets bet on Trump win

US election risks move to the forefront as Trump narrows gap with HarrisGold begins week with new record as geopolitical tensions add to demandStocks mixed ahead of key earningsTrump trade makes a returnGold extended its record streak at the start of the new trading week as investors increasingly bet on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election on November 5. The precious metal climbed to all-time highs above $2,730/oz amid the growing risk of Trump returning to the White House.
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Strong US data keep the dollar in demand

 ECB cuts rate, keeps door wide open to a December moveEuro suffers as US retail sales surprise on the upsideFocus today is on Fedspeak and in particular Fed’s BosticGold surpasses $2,700 as China announces further measuresECB announces rate cut, prepares for a December moveThe euro suffered another weak session yesterday, with the euro/dollar pair dropping below the key 200-day simple moving average and euro/pound fully erasing the recent UK CPI-induced correction.
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XM Research - 3 weeks agoNeutral

Quick Brief - US retail sales give dollar bulls another shot in the arm

Retail sales in the US rise by more than expected in SeptemberInitial jobless claims are also better than expectedUS dollar edges higher after the dataIt’s a hat-trick of stronger-than-expected data for the US economy as retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index all beat their forecasts on Thursday. Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in September, topping estimates of 0.3% and accelerating from the prior 0.1% reading.
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XM Research - 3 weeks agoNeutral

Quick Brief – ECB cut rates by 25 bps as expected

ECB’s announcement has no strong impact on the marketEuro continues the selling interestSeptember inflation revised down to 1.7% y/yThe ECB cut its interest rates by 25 bps in October as forecasted following similar moves in September and June. The ECB adjusted three different rates: 3.25% for the deposit facility, 3.4% for the main refinancing operations, and 3.65% for the marginal lending facility.A more recent evaluation of inflation has shown that disinflation is making positive progre
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XM Research - 3 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – US dollar could benefit from an unexciting ECB meeting

ECB meets but unlikely to reverse euro’s recent trendBoth the dollar and US stocks are in a good moodNetflix reports today after TSMC's massive profit jumpGold and bitcoin in demand, oil craves a bullish catalystEuro's suffering continues as ECB meetsThe euro remains on the back foot as it continues to underperform the dollar. The pair has dropped to the lowest level since August 2 with October shaping up to be the weakest month for euro/dollar since May 2023. This dollar outperformanc
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