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Comments & Briefs

XM Research - 5 hours agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Strong US data keep the dollar in demand

 ECB cuts rate, keeps door wide open to a December moveEuro suffers as US retail sales surprise on the upsideFocus today is on Fedspeak and in particular Fed’s BosticGold surpasses $2,700 as China announces further measuresECB announces rate cut, prepares for a December moveThe euro suffered another weak session yesterday, with the euro/dollar pair dropping below the key 200-day simple moving average and euro/pound fully erasing the recent UK CPI-induced correction.
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XM Research - 1 day agoNeutral

Quick Brief - US retail sales give dollar bulls another shot in the arm

Retail sales in the US rise by more than expected in SeptemberInitial jobless claims are also better than expectedUS dollar edges higher after the dataIt’s a hat-trick of stronger-than-expected data for the US economy as retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index all beat their forecasts on Thursday. Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in September, topping estimates of 0.3% and accelerating from the prior 0.1% reading.
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XM Research - 1 day agoNeutral

Quick Brief – ECB cut rates by 25 bps as expected

ECB’s announcement has no strong impact on the marketEuro continues the selling interestSeptember inflation revised down to 1.7% y/yThe ECB cut its interest rates by 25 bps in October as forecasted following similar moves in September and June. The ECB adjusted three different rates: 3.25% for the deposit facility, 3.4% for the main refinancing operations, and 3.65% for the marginal lending facility.A more recent evaluation of inflation has shown that disinflation is making positive progre
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XM Research - 1 day agoNeutral

Daily Comment – US dollar could benefit from an unexciting ECB meeting

ECB meets but unlikely to reverse euro’s recent trendBoth the dollar and US stocks are in a good moodNetflix reports today after TSMC's massive profit jumpGold and bitcoin in demand, oil craves a bullish catalystEuro's suffering continues as ECB meetsThe euro remains on the back foot as it continues to underperform the dollar. The pair has dropped to the lowest level since August 2 with October shaping up to be the weakest month for euro/dollar since May 2023. This dollar outperformanc
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XM Research - 2 days agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure by chipmakers, pound slips on CPI drop

Chip stocks hit by selloff after ASML cuts 2025 guidanceDollar stretches gains as pound and kiwi fall on lower inflationOil steadier amid ongoing ME drama, gold heads towards fresh recordChip and AI stocks take a diveEquity markets suffered a setback on Tuesday after Dutch semiconductor giant, ASML, sparked panic about the demand outlook for chips when it accidentally published its earnings report a day early.
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Quick Brief – Canadian CPI opens the door for 50 bps rate cut by BoC

Canadian CPI falls to 1.6% y/yBoC is expected to cut rates by 50 bpsLoonie loses significant groundCanada's annual inflation rate decreased to 1.6% in September, down from 2% in the previous month, the lowest since February 2021 and below the market consensus of 1.8%. It was the second consecutive period in which CPI inflation fell on or below the Bank of Canada's target of 2%, endorsing expectations that policymakers will cut rates by 50 bps during the next policy meeting. Infla
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Daily Comment – US dollar and stock rally continues

Euphoria in US assets, stock indices reach new highsToday's Fed speakers could threaten Monday’s gainsOil and gold in the red, bitcoin enjoys a strong boostPound ignores jobs data, awaits Wednesday’s CPIUS stocks and dollar in the greenBoth the US dollar and main US equity indices enjoyed another strong session yesterday. Euro/dollar traded at a 45-day low, and both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indices recorded new all-time highs despite the Columbus Day bank holiday keeping both th
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XM Research - 4 days agoNeutral

Quick brief – Tech stocks drive Wall Street to fresh highs

S&P 500 advances to all-time high; Nasdaq 100 gains the mostTech stocks cheer on China’s stimulus news as AI optimism prevailsWall Street celebrated Columbus Day with fresh highs, with the Nasdaq 100 trading almost 1.0% up at a three-month high of 20,493 and the S&P 500 index surging 0.50% to unlock an all-time high of 5,840.Bank stocks excluding Goldman Sachs could not attract fresh impetus following Friday’s encouraging earnings from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, while Tesla’s stock
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XM Research - 4 days agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar edges up, stocks muted as China stimulus underwhelms

China announces more stimulus details but no word on size of packageAttention turns to week’s other events as stocks unimpressedEuro and pound flat as ECB decision and UK CPI awaitedChina pledges more support, stocks steadyChinese officials unveiled more measures to shore up the country’s embattled property sector while also pledging further support for businesses and consumers in two separate announcements on Saturday and Monday.
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XM Research - 1 week agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar baffled after mixed data and Fedspeak

Jobless claims contradict the stronger CPI reportFed’s Bostic talks about a November Fed pauseDollar trades sideways as the market still expects a November cutOil and gold in the green, pound doesn’t enjoy today’s dataCPI and jobless claims jump, but Fed’s Bostic makes the headlinesThe US inflation report managed to produce an upside surprise with both the headline and core indicators accelerating by an additional 0.1% on an annual basis compared to the economists’ forecasts.
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XM Research - 1 week agoNeutral

Quick brief – US core CPI ticks higher; jobless claims increase

US CPI inflation shows stickiness, but the focus falls on rising jobless claimsUSDJPY loses momentum; gold erases Wednesday’s declineThe US CPI inflation for all items arrived softly higher than analysts expected at 2.4% y/y on the back of increased shelter and food costs in September, although it was lower than August’s reading of 2.5%. Likewise, the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up unexpectedly to 3.3% y/y, to the highest point since June, marking it
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XM Research - 1 week agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Wall Street hits new record after Fed minutes, CPI eyed next

Fed minutes show split over September cut but Wall Street ralliesDollar eases from near 2-month high as focus turns to CPI reportGold and oil steadier after recent lossesFed minutes add little clarity The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting published on Wednesday did little to end the uncertainty about the pace of rate reductions over the coming months.
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XM Research - 1 week agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar seeks direction amidst tepid market conditions

Fed speakers and minutes in the spotlight todayDollar’s rally pauses, but oil and gold suffer lossesRBNZ cuts rates by 50bps, kiwi weakensChina schedules another press conference as local stocks plungeFed members continue to support a November rate cutThe public discussion regarding the Fed’s next steps continues, as a plethora of Fed members are on the wires almost on a daily basis.
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XM Research - 1 week agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Risk appetite ebbs as markets fret over China stimulus, Fed rate cuts

Risk sentiment dented as China refrains from fresh stimulus measuresFed officials give cautious green light to more rate cutsDollar and equities turn lower after recent gains as US CPI awaitedMarkets consolidate as China announcement disappointsOptimism about China’s newfound love for bold stimulus policies faded slightly on Tuesday as a much-anticipated press briefing by the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ended without any significant new measures being announce
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar stands tall after robust jobs report

Strong US data dent chances of a 50bps Fed rate cutPlethora of Fed speakers on the wires todayDollar enjoys strong gains, stocks rally unexpectedlyOil pushes higher as gold’s retreat continuesUS jobs report surprises to the upside, doves are displeasedAnother exciting week commences as market participants are still digesting the unexpectedly strong US labour market data.
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Quick Brief – US labour market data boosts both the dollar and stocks

Non-farm payrolls jump by 254k, a 6-month highUnemployment dips and hourly earnings surprise to the upsideDollar benefits, US stocks also bounce higherThe September non-farm payrolls report printed at 254k, a 6-month high, and well above forecasts for a 140k increase. With the August print revised slightly higher to 159k, the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and the average hourly earnings growth jumping to 4%, one could say the latest set of labour market data was unexpectedly strong. The ch
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Quick brief – ISM non-mfg PMI beats forecasts, Biden comments on Iran’s oil facilities

ISM non-mfg PMI rises faster than expected in September; employment index declinesBiden alleges that Israel is preparing to carry out attacks on Iran’s oil sites The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey indicated growth for the third straight month in September, with the index reaching 54.9 - the highest reading since February 2023 - surpassing analysts’ expectations of 51.7 and August’s reading of 51.4.The new orders index saw a significant increase of over 6 points to reach 59.4, while the
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains on upbeat US data

Dollar gains as ADP jobs report beats estimatesYen falls on prime minister Ishiba’s dovish remarksPound collapses after BoE’s Bailey warns about faster cutsWall Street virtually unchanged, gold retreats, oil extends gainsUS data allow dollar to extend latest recoveryThe dollar extended its gains against its major peers on Wednesday and during the Asian session Thursday.
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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