Special Reports

Three important risks to know about crude oil – Special Report

Posted on February 18, 2019 at 12:43 pm GMT

The last quarter of 2018 was a tough one for oil producers as fears over a global growth slowdown and concerns on plentiful production sent prices to 1 ½-year lows. To reverse the slump, OPEC and non-OPEC members clinched a deal to cut output as of January 1 despite previously increasing levels, with the market responding immediately, sending prices higher by 18% since the start of the new year. But moving ahead, the outlook remains fragile as some issues still need to [..]

Special Report – Aussie and Kiwi outlook: storm clouds gathering?

Posted on February 11, 2019 at 3:51 pm GMT

Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen the wind leave their sails lately, amid mounting speculation that their respective central banks will cut rates soon, and as investors started having second thoughts about a US-China trade deal. Examining the landscape for each economy, the case for looser policy in New Zealand seems much clearer than in Australia, though market pricing currently implies roughly equal odds for a rate cut in both. This suggests that the risks surrounding aussie/kiwi [..]

Euro recovery turns sour again as recession risks grow; will the ECB come to the rescue? – Special Report

Posted on February 7, 2019 at 2:25 pm GMT

The euro’s slow recovery against the US dollar from November’s 16½-month low appears to have stalled as the outlook for the Eurozone economy grows grimmer by the day with no sign yet that a turnaround is around the corner. Expectations that the European Central Bank will nevertheless press ahead with its plans to start raising rates later this year, along with a pullback in the greenback have been supporting the single currency until recently. However, with the ECB’s normalization plans [..]

Special Report – US government shutdown impact, and the prospect for more

Posted on January 30, 2019 at 4:15 pm GMT

The US government shutdown has ended, for the next two weeks at least, leaving a trail of delayed economic data and lost economic output in its wake. Unless Republicans and Democrats can reach a compromise soon, the government will likely shut down again, or President Trump could declare a national emergency. Overall, the longer and the more frequent shutdowns become, the more political uncertainty rises – at a time when trade uncertainty is already elevated. The impact of the partial [..]

Special Report – As the Brexit deadlock lingers, what’s behind the pound’s rally?

Posted on January 24, 2019 at 11:59 am GMT

After Theresa May’s Brexit deal suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat in history for a sitting government, few would have thought the pound’s response to the latest setback for the prime minister would have been to head higher. However, as British MPs grow increasingly determined to take control of the Brexit process, investors are becoming convinced that there is no majority will in Parliament to allow the country to leave the European Union without a deal. The pound hit a new [..]

Commodities outlook 2019: Will precious metals shine?

Posted on January 14, 2019 at 2:13 pm GMT

The commodities complex had a particularly volatile run in 2018, with flaring trade tensions, mounting concerns around slowing global growth, and a stronger US dollar being behind the abysmal performance of most commodities. In 2019, the outlook will hinge mainly on how the trade dispute plays out, with precious metals likely to perform well in case global risks remain pronounced, and the dollar soft. Plethora of market risks could keep gold in fashion Admittedly, gold had a rocky year in [..]

Equities year ahead 2019: Grim outlook weighs on earnings but is the gloom justified?

Posted on January 3, 2019 at 12:22 pm GMT

After a year that saw the S&P 500’s bull run become the longest in history and then abruptly end, giving way to a steep correction, investors are increasingly nervous that 2019 may be an even more challenging period as the US economic cycle appears to be nearing its final stages. Global central banks are withdrawing stimulus at a time when growth is moderating to more normal levels and geopolitical risks linger. Hence, volatility is set to remain elevated, and while [..]

FX year ahead 2019: End of dollar dominance?

Posted on December 24, 2018 at 12:22 pm GMT

As 2018 draws to a close, the heavily sold currencies are set to end the year off their lows, while the US dollar – one of the biggest winners of 2018 – appears on track to start 2019 on a negative footing. While it’s too early to predict a new downtrend for the dollar, expectations that US interest rates are nearing their cycle peak could provide the greenback’s peers some much-needed relief. Yet, several risks remain – ranging from the [..]

Special Report – As UK Parliament descends into chaos, pound finds support from rising chances of no Brexit

Posted on December 6, 2018 at 2:08 pm GMT

The completion of the Withdrawal Agreement between UK and EU negotiators was meant to signal the end of months of uncertainty, quell fears of a no-deal Brexit, and set the groundwork for talks on future relations. However, Prime Minister Theresa May’s hard-fought deal has come under heavy attack from all sides of the political spectrum in the UK, with Westminster descending into chaos amid a fractious parliament. The endless Brexit headlines have generated a lot of choppy trading for the [..]

Strategy update: The trade ‘truce’, the Fed’s possible pause and May’s Brexit woes

Posted on December 5, 2018 at 3:06 pm GMT

Markets unconvinced by Trump-Xi trade rapprochement The Fed could slow rate hikes Market braces for Brexit turbulence as May struggles to convince Parliament Markets unconvinced by Trump-Xi trade rapprochement A major theme for global markets and the global economy is the uncertainty caused by the frictions between the United States and China. It was therefore an initially positive piece of news that the two countries would restart a new round of negotiations that would last for 90 days, that China would pledge to import [..]

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