Special Reports

Gold rides the ‘perfect wave’ higher – Special Report

Posted on June 21, 2019 at 10:57 am GMT

The world’s oldest safe haven recorded extraordinary gains lately, as the ‘perfect combination’ of falling interest rates, a declining dollar, and general risk aversion amid recession and geopolitical fears fueled the rally. Given that these forces seem unlikely to abate anytime soon, the outlook for gold remains bright, with the key risk to this view being a potential trade ‘ceasefire’ that calms markets down. The global economy is clearly losing momentum, with uncertainty emanating from trade tensions holding back business [..]

May’s “new, bold” Brexit deal is dead on arrival; pound’s outlook turns grim – Special Report

Posted on May 23, 2019 at 7:20 am GMT

Theresa May’s last-ditch attempt to secure support for her hard-fought Brexit deal failed dramatically on Tuesday with the beleaguered UK prime minister facing strong criticism from opposition parties as well as her own MPs. The pound has slumped on the overwhelmingly negative response to May’s tweaked Brexit offer to Parliament as a disorderly exit from the European Union once again started to look like a realistic prospect. After promising a “new, bold offer” on the Brexit deal, May was struggling [..]

Euro could have a cold June – Special Report

Posted on May 21, 2019 at 2:55 pm GMT

The Eurozone’s currency has been driving on a slippery road for more than a year now and even if the 19-member bloc doubled its growth in the first quarter of 2019, downside risks in both the political and economic spheres continue to linger in the background, flagging another tough month for the euro. In the first three months of the year, GDP growth in the Eurozone was 0.4% q/q, which was twice the increase in the fourth quarter of 2018 according [..]

Specter of trade war returns to haunt markets – Special Report

Posted on May 9, 2019 at 2:43 pm GMT

Investor attention has turned back to trade, as the US considers whether to launch another round of tariffs on China early on Friday (04:00 GMT). If tariffs are indeed increased, that would probably send stock markets plunging as investors brace for China’s retaliation, or worse yet for a breakdown in the talks. In the bigger picture though, the most likely endgame is still that a deal will ultimately be reached. After months of optimistic comments from both the US and [..]

Can US stock markets continue to defy gravity? – Special Report

Posted on April 19, 2019 at 1:19 pm GMT

US equity markets have been on a tear in 2019, reclaiming lost ground to come within breathing distance of their all-time highs. The rally has been fueled mainly by the Fed putting its rate-hike plans on ice, though easing trade tensions and corporate buybacks helped as well. While stocks could advance even further and break new highs, the risks seem increasingly asymmetric, with gains looking limited if growth stays solid but losses severe in case fears of a recession make [..]

Q1 Earnings season: a helping hand or a hand out? – Special report

Posted on April 11, 2019 at 2:55 pm GMT

The time for the earnings season is coming again this Friday but unlike preceding releases, the S&P 500 companies are expected to have had a negative ride year-on-year in Q1 2019 for the first time since Q2 2016, with Refinitiv data suggesting a 2.5% decline in earnings per share. Another difference is that traders are feeling both nervousness and excitement as the unsurprising growth downgrade by the IMF earlier this week confirmed that something is wrong with the global economy, while in Wall Street, [..]

Dollar depreciation remains elusive even as Fed prepares to lower rate path prediction – Special Report

Posted on March 14, 2019 at 4:27 pm GMT

Following the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in January, there is a lot of anticipation for the next FOMC meeting on March 19-20 when policymakers will publish their latest economic projections, including a revised dot plot chart. But as the Fed becomes increasingly at ease with its newly-adopted wait-and-see approach, the dovish policy move does not appear to be transmitting into the currency markets, with the dollar index holding close to 1½-year highs. The greenback was widely expected to weaken in [..]

With a Brexit extension in sight, what’s the outlook for sterling? – Special Report

Posted on March 8, 2019 at 2:35 pm GMT

The coming week will be a crucial one for the Brexit process, as the UK Parliament will finally have a chance to vote for an extension of the exit date. Alas, even if that happens, such a delay would only be a one-time trick, so ‘something has to give’ by the summer. While the eventual destination for sterling is likely to be higher from current levels, the fact that the deadlock is unlikely to be resolved over the coming months [..]

As a trade deal moves closer, is China at risk of overstimulating its economy? – Special Report

Posted on March 6, 2019 at 3:40 pm GMT

Growth in China decelerated to the slowest pace since 1990 last year, underlining the challenges the country faces amid sluggish global demand and a more protectionist United States. China’s leaders haven’t been sitting on their hands, however, as an abundance of policy measures have been initiated since last summer when the first wave of US tariffs struck. But with the fiscal and monetary loosening being stepped up amid a continuing downtrend in growth, is the government risking undoing the progress [..]

Gold rips higher amid a quiet flight to safety – Special Report

Posted on February 20, 2019 at 3:26 pm GMT

Bullion prices continue to surge, ascending to fresh 10-month highs this week. Since the correlation between gold and the US dollar has diminished lately, it seems a flight to safety is quietly going on, amid global growth and recession concerns. Yet, for buyers to pierce above the elusive $1365 area, some more ‘fuel’ may be required, such as a fresh escalation in growth risks or a materially weaker dollar. Gold has had an impressive run so far this year, rising [..]

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