Special Reports

What’s next in the shifting Brexit saga? – Special Report

Posted on October 11, 2019 at 1:08 pm GMT

Markets have become more optimistic on Brexit, after the UK and Irish leaders said they see a ‘pathway’ to a deal. Yet, if Boris truly watered down his stance enough to make a deal possible, he will likely lose the support of his hardline Brexiteers, so any accord may be rejected by Parliament. Hence, another Brexit extension that is followed by an election still seem inevitable. Since that could make both a future deal and a second referendum more likely, [..]

Could Facebook’s Libra put central banks on the digital front first? – Special Report

Posted on September 27, 2019 at 10:38 am GMT

Facebook’s plans of launching its own cryptocurrency at some point next year raised the alarm in the central bank community, which already faces issues of meeting its objectives. However, what looks to be just an idea now, could turn into a competitive game and a pivot point to the means of exchange if regulators pull the trigger. What is Libra? Since the unanimous release of the famous Bitcoin in 2009, there has been little progress in making cryptocurrencies well-recognized and acceptable means of [..]

What now for Boris and sterling after UK Supreme Court rules prorogation unlawful – Special Report

Posted on September 25, 2019 at 8:58 am GMT

The highest court in the United Kingdom has landed a fresh blow for Prime Minister Boris Johnson after it ruled that the government’s decision to suspend Parliament was unlawful. The surprise ruling cut Johnson’s trip to New York short where he was hoping to meet his EU counterparts on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly to speed up progress in the Brexit negotiations. But following the Supreme Court’s decision, it’s unclear whether Johnson can stay on as prime [..]

Commodity dollars bounce back on easing headwinds but outlook remains as clouded as ever – Special Report

Posted on September 12, 2019 at 2:28 pm GMT

Commodity-driven currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are enjoying a bit of a reprieve from an extended sell-off as rekindled hopes of a US-China trade deal and increased stimulus around the world have energized the struggling currencies. But despite early indications that the upcoming trade talks may actually produce substantive progress, the range of factors weighing on the aussie, kiwi and loonie means more downside is likely to come. The ongoing trade war has dented the [..]

Salvini may have thrown a boomerang – Special Report

Posted on August 26, 2019 at 2:03 pm GMT

Matteo Salvini, the right-wing League Deputy Prime Minister, fired up a political crisis in Italy after pulling support for the coalition government earlier this month, forcing the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to resign and the marriage with the leftist Five Star Movement (M5S) to break down. Starting consultation with the main political parties, President Sergio Matarella will push efforts to form a new alliance and avoid snap elections before the 2020 budget discussions with the EU start. The plan, however, [..]

Can monetary and fiscal stimulus save the global economy from Trump’s trade war? – Special Report

Posted on August 23, 2019 at 11:04 am GMT

Stock markets around the world have rebounded this week as talk of stimulus in China and Germany has given rise to hopes that pre-emptive action by policymakers can avert a global economic downturn triggered by President Trump’s protectionist policies. But with a US-China trade deal fast slipping away, do governments and central banks have enough firepower to prevent a new global crisis from unfolding? World interest rates have hit rock bottom With interest rates in most advanced economies not recovering [..]

Will German fiscal stimulus be too little, too late? – Special Report

Posted on August 22, 2019 at 9:30 am GMT

The euro area is on the brink of yet another crisis, with Germany likely to enter a technical recession soon, as the export-heavy economy feels the burn of the US-China trade war and of Brexit worries. Although the ECB is preparing another dose of easing, monetary policy is already exhausted, and fiscal policy needs to step up. Sadly, any German stimulus is unlikely to be large and may take long to arrive, so any sustained rebound in the euro seems [..]

As the trade war fires up, what’s next for markets? – Special Report

Posted on August 8, 2019 at 12:44 pm GMT

The trade war between Washington and Beijing has flared up, and looks likely to intensify even further, as Trump may use the conflict to score political points ahead of the 2020 US election. In the markets, while stocks may feel some pain, stimulus by the major central banks will likely offset part of those losses. Instead, a far better proxy for any future escalation may be the Japanese yen, which could appreciate further both through the risk sentiment channel and [..]

What’s next for sterling as Britain flirts with a no-deal Brexit? – Special Report

Posted on July 19, 2019 at 1:26 pm GMT

The British pound remains in the eye of the storm, as markets are waking up to the risk that a no-deal Brexit in October may be incoming Prime Minister Johnson’s preferred route. The coming week will be decisive, as the Cabinet ministers Johnson picks could reveal much about his strategy. As for sterling, the picture remains grim and a revisit of the $1.20 zone – or beyond – shouldn’t be ruled out, with signals for a General Election or a [..]

As central banks move to cut rates again, how much lower can they go? – Special Report

Posted on July 11, 2019 at 3:10 pm GMT

As sovereign bond yields around the world take a nosedive in anticipation of rate cuts by major central banks, the question once again being asked is how low can interest rates go. With rates in many regions such as Europe and Japan already in negative territory, have central banks run out of adequate scope to conduct effective policy easing? Bond yields tumble on recession fears Slowing growth and worries of a possible recession in the United States and elsewhere have [..]

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