Special Reports

Polls scare away pound bulls while aussie rebound fails at 73 cents

Posted on June 1, 2016 at 2:39 pm GMT

Pound scare The biggest mover of the past few sessions in the foreign exchange market has been the British pound. While polls had until recently been showing an increasing double-digit lead for the “remain” campaign, there was a big turnaround as the latest polls have actually reversed and are showing either a dead heat or the “leave” camp slightly ahead. For example, it was the first time that a telephone poll indicated that the “leave” camp was ahead of “remain”, [..]

Pound starts to discount Bremain while markets put yen question to BoJ, Abe

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 2:55 pm GMT

The British pound the day after The British pound has been putting in a strong performance over the past few trading sessions, as it has pushed to a 3-week high versus the US dollar (above 1.4730) while pressuring euro / pound to a near 4-month low of 0.7564. This was the lowest point since before the date of the referendum on EU membership was decided earlier this year, on 20 February. It is obvious that the main factor pushing sterling [..]

Fed surprises markets with hawkish speakers – minutes

Posted on May 20, 2016 at 2:09 pm GMT

The key development of the previous few days has been the shift in expectations about a possible Fed rate hike during the June / July period. Whereas markets even a week ago attached a very low probability to a rate hike in the next two months, following this week’s Fed speakers and the release of the minutes from the April FOMC meeting, this perception has changed. The result of this has been renewed strength of the US dollar, as the [..]

Crude oil rally boosts risk assets, commodity currencies

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:11 pm GMT

It has been a remarkable year for crude oil and market participants that specialize in this particular market. Having bottomed at just below $28 a barrel in January (a near 13-year low), a mere 4 months later the price has rallied by more than 70% from that low. Interestingly, the US equity benchmark the S&P 500 also made a low on the day that oil bottomed, although that particular level was also retested in early February for US equities. This [..]

UK Pound price swings constrained as market awaits more Brexit clues

Posted on May 13, 2016 at 1:59 pm GMT

The British pound has been the favorite of speculators and traders since the beginning of the year, providing some sharp swings and much excitement as markets try to grapple with the Brexit uncertainty. At the same time, it appears investors are a little more scared and are looking for more clarity on the referendum issue before they make their own ‘remain’, ‘leave’ or ‘enter’ decisions with respect to UK investments. What has been noteworthy therefore is that the pound has [..]

Dollar ranges hold for now

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 1:01 pm GMT

It has been a relatively quiet few sessions in the foreign exchange market following the release of the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls out of the US. For example, the most important currency pair in the world, euro / dollar, has been pinned to the 1.14 level with little appetite to move either significantly higher or lower for now. Most of the action since the employment report was released has been in dollar / yen, with a rally from about 106.50 all [..]

Crunch points could be near for euro / dollar, dollar / yen

Posted on May 4, 2016 at 1:45 pm GMT

One very interesting question in the minds of many market participants is what will happen to the US dollar and whether its rally since May / June of 2014 has now finally come to an end. Technically speaking, the prospects of its major rivals such as the yen and the euro, are looking much better for the moment. The dollar is looking bearish in both euro / dollar and dollar / yen as the 200-day moving average and the Ichimoku [..]

When will sterling become a ‘normal’ currency again?

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 1:21 pm GMT

For the past 6 months or so, the British currency has been under the heavy influence of political risk due to the ‘Brexit’ vote. Speculation that the UK might have to leave the European Union, according to the outcome of the June referendum, have been plaguing the currency. The exact impact of such a decision is very difficult to measure; the ‘leave’ camp claims it will not have any appreciable effect while the ‘remain’ camp warns of a serious economic [..]

Euro pressured as ECB gets defensive and goes into waiting mode

Posted on April 22, 2016 at 2:07 pm GMT

The ECB meeting was this week’s main event in financial markets as many awaited an evaluation of the overall situation by its President Mario Draghi. The central bank had surprised markets back in March by doing more stimulus than was expected, but the euro nevertheless rallied. No new measures were expected but some guidance as to the future intentions of the bank was anticipated. In a sense, the ECB, a little like the Federal Reserve, is perhaps less likely to [..]

Stock market rally despite oil deal collapse could reinvigorate US dollar at some point

Posted on April 19, 2016 at 9:52 am GMT

The collapse of the deal to freeze oil output at the Doha meeting on Sunday came as a big surprise to market participants, as major producers such as Russia and Venezuela had invested significant efforts and political capital into it. In the end, it looked like Saudi Arabia was still not on board, as they blamed their foe Iran for not signing up to the deal but this might have been just a pretext for the Saudis to keep the [..]

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