Special Reports

Special Report – More euro underperformance in store by year-end?

Posted on November 13, 2018 at 3:13 pm GMT

Mostly euro-friendly election outcomes, at least in the eyes of investors, and economic data pointing to a strong pickup in economic activity were the factors that rendered the euro the best performing major currency in 2017. Specifically, the common currency advanced by 14.1% versus its US counterpart. This compares to the -6.1% so far in 2018, partially owed to the absence of the aforementioned euro-supportive drivers, something that also paves the way for further underperformance during the remainder of the [..]

Special Report – How the US midterm elections could impact the dollar and equities

Posted on November 2, 2018 at 11:59 am GMT

The US midterm elections next week are widely expected to produce a split Congress. Investors appear somewhat complacent on the outcome, which allows room for notable market reactions in case of a surprise, like one of the parties taking control of both chambers. Below follows an analysis of the possible outcomes, the likelihood attached to each, and the associated implications for the dollar and equities. On Tuesday, November 6, Americans will go to the polls to elect their 116th Congress. [..]

Special Report – As NAFTA talks enter final stretch, is the loonie set to rally?

Posted on September 13, 2018 at 3:03 pm GMT

The US-Canada trade talks have heated up lately, with a deal by the end of this month looking increasingly more realistic. In such a case, the loonie could surge in relief as the NAFTA risk premium on the currency fades, with broader market risk appetite also receiving a boost. While there may be a few wobbles in the meantime as the US continues playing “hardball”, there is probably too much at stake for either side to let the talks collapse, [..]

Special Report – As US set to ramp up trade war with China, where next for the dollar?

Posted on September 4, 2018 at 3:47 pm GMT

The US-China trade dispute is showing no sign of abating anytime soon as the Trump administration looks set to press ahead with its threat of $200 billion of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Financial markets started the month and the week on a negative tone as the prospect of further trader barriers between the United States and China dampened the market mood amid growing fears that the ongoing tensions and uncertainty will hurt global growth. Safe havens such as the [..]

Special Report – With US stocks hitting all-time highs, are they still a buy?

Posted on August 31, 2018 at 1:14 pm GMT

As US stock indices break fresh highs, the question on everyone’s mind is how much longer the current bull market can continue. The remarkable resilience of US equities to trade tensions and rising interest rates, combined with a robust US economy, suggest the late-cycle party is unlikely to end over the coming months. Looking further ahead into 2019 though, the outlook becomes much more clouded, warranting a more prudent approach. After an inflation scare spooked equity investors in the early [..]

Special Report – Theresa May seeks a compromise on Brexit, but will the EU listen?

Posted on July 13, 2018 at 12:43 pm GMT

The past days have been a wild ride for the British pound, with the Brexit saga receiving multiple new chapters. Key Brexiteer ministers have resigned, and while this has been interpreted as a negative in the sense that it threatens Theresa May’s position as PM and hence increases the likelihood for a no-deal Brexit, it also provides a unique opportunity for the EU-UK negotiations to move forward. In a rather dramatic start to the week, the Brexit narrative came back [..]

Special Report – Lopez Obrador : a helping hand from Mexico or a hand-out?

Posted on July 11, 2018 at 1:47 pm GMT

Having lost two previous elections, once in 2006 and once in 2012, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the head of the small four-year-old party MORENA in Mexico known by his initials as AMLO turned to be the first leftist president at the July 1st elections since the 1930s, comfortably beating the two traditional parties which dominated the presidency since 2000. While AMLO will mainly have to deal with high levels of crime and inequality plaguing Mexico, his proposals on the trade front are what will likely keep investors on their toes amid [..]

Special Report – How have major currencies fared so far in 2018, and what lies ahead?

Posted on July 5, 2018 at 3:25 pm GMT

Following the completion of the second quarter of the year, the dollar is standing higher against most of its major peers, drawing support from a more hawkish Fed and a US economy firing on all cylinders. Below, we outline how some of the most widely-traded currency pairs have performed thus far in 2018, and what may lie ahead in an environment characterized by trade tensions, political uncertainties, and monetary policy divergences. Euro/dollar – Down, but not out The world’s most [..]

Special Report – Emerging market and risk sensitive currencies take a hit from rising trade tensions

Posted on June 21, 2018 at 12:18 pm GMT

The United States and China came one step closer to an all-out trade war this week after the Trump administration announced counter tariffs to China’s retaliation to the US’s 25% tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods, when they matched it with similar levies. Until now, the growing rift in trade policy between the world’s two largest economies had been met by only modest responses in financial markets. However, following the latest exchange of heated rhetoric, market participants may have [..]

Special Report – Only “Trump risk” left to lift the yen

Posted on June 20, 2018 at 2:33 pm GMT

The yen appreciated by 3.9% versus the US currency in 2017, which marked the worst year for the greenback since 2003. During the first few months of the current year, the Japanese currency managed to build on last year’s positive momentum, in part due to rising market expectations for a Bank of Japan that is getting closer to normalizing policy. Indicatively, the dollar/yen pair touched its lowest since late 2016 of 104.55 on March 26. However, as we’re approaching the [..]

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