Daily Market Analysis

European Open Preview – Pound under pressure as Tories trigger leadership contest

Posted on December 12, 2018 at 9:12 am GMT

Sterling near 20-month lows as Conservative lawmakers trigger no-confidence vote in Theresa May; ballot to be held today Risk appetite recovers as Trump and China stoke hopes for a deal Euro remains on the back foot ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting US inflation data on tap Sterling crumbles as Tories trigger leadership challenge The British pound sank to a fresh 20-month low versus the dollar on Tuesday, following reports that “rebels” within Theresa May’s Conservative party nearly have the numbers [..]

European Open Preview – Brexit vote delayed and pound pays the price

Posted on December 11, 2018 at 9:03 am GMT

US-China discuss trade talks schedule, but markets keep risk-off behavior May delays Brexit vote in Parliament; pound drops below 1.26 Italian budget adjustments not ready yet US-China discuss roadmap for trade talks The Chinese Vice Premier, Liu He, is said to have exchanged views with the US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer and the US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, on how to move trade talks forward on Tuesday, giving some grounds for optimism that a worsening trade war is not in the interest of either nation. [..]

European Open Preview – Trade fears heighten as Huawei story complicates; Brexit in center stage

Posted on December 10, 2018 at 9:22 am GMT

Stocks in the red as Huawei story ramps up trade concerns Pound on the back foot ahead of GDP growth data; May could delay Brexit vote in Parliament OPEC-Non-Opec members set supply cut but global growth concerns weigh Huawei story continues, pushing stocks lower On Sunday, the Chinese government summoned the American ambassador in protest to the arrest of Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer in Canada on December 1, ramping up tensions between Washington and Beijing. Stocks in Asia opened in [..]

European Open Preview – Dollar moves off lows ahead of US jobs report but weighed by talk of Fed pause

Posted on December 7, 2018 at 9:14 am GMT

US dollar edges up from lows as risk sentiment improves, but expectations that the Fed could soon pause its rate hike cycle limit gains US Treasury yields fall sharply on Wall Street Journal report that Fed is considering “wait-and-see” approach Pound steady despite May pondering whether to delay Brexit vote Oil under pressure again as OPEC struggles to reach output agreement, awaits for Russia to join talks before making decision Dollar firmer ahead of nonfarm payrolls report The US dollar [..]

European Open Preview – Risk sentiment sours; OPEC summit front and center

Posted on December 6, 2018 at 8:33 am GMT

Risk appetite crumbles as US arrests Huawei CFO, generating worries of re-escalation in the trade conflict Today, all eyes are on OPEC’s meeting (1200 GMT); expectations for a production cut are elevated Loonie nosedives to a 1½-year low as BoC shifts to a more cautious stance Risk appetite falters on fears of “trade war” re-escalation After a relatively calm Wednesday, risk appetite deteriorated once more during the Asian session on Thursday, following news that the CFO of the Chinese tech [..]

European Open Preview – Stocks sink amid trade woes; BoC decision eyed

Posted on December 5, 2018 at 8:57 am GMT

Trump’s trade posturing sinks stock markets Bank of Canada to stand pat (1500 GMT), but may appear a touch more cautious Dollar rebounds after Fed’s Williams reiterates “gradual hikes” Sterling remains turbulent as Parliamentary debate kicks off Equities sink on Trump’s trade posturing Wall Street plunged, with the S&P 500 falling by a whopping 3.24% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite nosediving by 3.80%. Meanwhile, defensive assets like the Japanese yen outperformed. The mood was already sour before the US markets [..]

European Open Preview – Markets retrace as trade optimism wanes

Posted on December 4, 2018 at 8:58 am GMT

Trade optimism fades as markets digest the agreement Dollar extends recent pullback Oil continues to recover amid speculation for an OPEC cut RBA slightly more upbeat, but no policy change in sight Stocks edge higher on trade relief, but optimism wanes The boost to global risk appetite following the US-China trade “ceasefire” seems to have been short-lived. Even though US stock markets closed higher, they did surrender a decent part of their gains late in the session, and futures tracking [..]

European Open Preview – Risk-on sentiment resumes as trade storm eases

Posted on December 3, 2018 at 9:37 am GMT

Stocks up, dollar down as trade fears ease French President Macron under political pressure but euro heads up Brexit risks loom in the background Oil surges as Russian President backs production cuts; Qatar to withdraw OPEC membership Stocks head higher on trade relief The US President, Donald Trump, and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping had progressive trade talks during their dinner on the sidelines of the G20 summit on Saturday, with the world’s largest economies deciding to ceasefire the [..]

European Open Preview – All eyes on the Trump-Xi meeting

Posted on November 30, 2018 at 8:41 am GMT

The Trump-Xi meeting is due tomorrow; whether a “ceasefire” is agreed may determine the near-term direction of the dollar and equities Market reaction to FOMC minutes was muted. Attention turns to a speech by NY Fed President Williams today at 1400 GMT Oil rebounds after posting fresh one-year lows, eyes next week’s OPEC meeting Trump and Xi to meet, outcome may shape risk appetite Movements in the FX market were largely subdued, with investors increasingly turning their attention to the [..]

European Open Preview – Powell sinks dollar, but mind the Fed minutes

Posted on November 29, 2018 at 8:38 am GMT

Dollar drops as Powell appears “dovish”. However, markets may have overreacted, hence today’s Fed minutes (1900 GMT) could be crucial Equities and commodity-linked currencies lifted by Powell’s remarks Pound capitalizes on dollar’s pullback and signs voters may support May’s deal Dollar drops as Powell appears “cautious”, but Fed minutes crucial Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday was widely perceived as dovish. The comment that grabbed most attention was that rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates that would be [..]

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