Daily Market Analysis

European Session – Euro jumps on French PMI data, dollar consolidates around 100 yen, oil down for a second day

Posted on August 23, 2016 at 2:45 pm GMT

The US dollar was under pressure for a second day while the euro jumped higher in reaction to data showing the flash composite Eurozone PMI numbers rose to a seven month high in August. The better-than-expected business growth data for the euro area lowered the chance of a rate cut by the ECB soon. French PMI data showed upside surprises to the services measure but Germany’s PMI figures were not so good and showed weaker numbers across manufacturing, services and the [..]

Asian Session – Kiwi up on RBNZ rate view; Dollar drifts lower in subdued trading

Posted on August 23, 2016 at 8:13 am GMT

The New Zealand dollar was the best performing currency on Tuesday as comments by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler lifted the kiwi in an otherwise muted summer trading session in Asia. In a speech at the Otago Chamber of Commerce, Wheeler reiterated the central bank’s view that further cuts would be needed but warned of the risks of rapid easing. Wheeler said the RBNZ expects rates to be cut by a further 35 basis points in [..]

European Session – Euro back above $1.13 as dollar rally fades; oil slips

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 2:04 pm GMT

A light economic calendar during today’s European session led currency moves to be driven by market sentiment, which turned towards risk aversion. Also, overall activity in the market is still light as the August lull led to thin trading conditions. Lack of risk appetite helped the yen gain back some lost ground against the dollar. The greenback had shot up in Asia after Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer added to the recent run of more hawkish Fed speakers. His comments [..]

Asian Session – Dollar extends gains as Fed’s Fischer adds to hawkish voices

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 8:30 am GMT

Markets were quiet on the first trading day of the week as the summer holiday and a very light calendar kept traders away. The main driver of currency markets on Monday were comments from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, which triggered a fresh rally in the dollar. Speaking at a conference in Colorado on Sunday, Fischer said the Fed is getting close to hitting its targets for full employment and 2% inflation. He added that although jobs growth has slowed [..]

European Session – Dollar steadies above 100 yen but set for weekly loss; loonie falls on weak retail sales, inflation data

Posted on August 19, 2016 at 3:10 pm GMT

The US dollar was back in favour today, helping it rise back above the key 100 yen level after falling below it yesterday. The greenback held above this level throughout the European session. Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback made a significant recovery today, halting nine straight days of declines, rising to a session high of $1.2890 from yesterday’s 7-week low of $1.2762. Aside from falling oil prices (the loonie is closely linked to moves in oil prices), Canadian retail sales [..]

Asian Session – Dollar supported by hawkish Fed comments; Aussie dips on banks rating warning

Posted on August 19, 2016 at 8:28 am GMT

Currency markets were subdued on the last trading day of the week as volumes were thin due to the summer holiday and in the absence of any major data releases. The main market mover was more hawkish comments from Regional Fed presidents William Dudley and John Williams, which provided some support to the dollar. Dudley reiterated on Thursday that the US is getting closer to full employment and that economic growth should strengthen in the second half of 2016. Meanwhile, [..]

European Session – Pound jumps on strong retail sales, dollar above 100 yen

Posted on August 18, 2016 at 2:25 pm GMT

Sterling was one of the strongest performing major currencies today after being boosted by a much better-than-expected UK retail sales report. Headline retail sales jumped 1.4% month-on-month which was far above the 0.2% gain expected. This was a surprising outcome as one would have anticipated a bigger negative impact from the Brexit vote. Warmer weather was a main factor behind the rise in retail sales volumes. The pound jumped significantly against the dollar after the data to reach its highest [..]

Asian Session – Dollar struggles below 100 yen as FOMC minutes show split views

Posted on August 18, 2016 at 7:58 am GMT

The US dollar stumbled after the minutes of the July FOMC meeting revealed the Fed was still in no hurry to raise rates. The minutes, published yesterday, showed a growing division within the FOMC on the timing of the next rate rise. According to the minutes, a couple of participants advocated for a rate hike in July arguing that the labor market is nearing full employment. However, several other members thought there would be “ample time” to respond if inflation [..]

European Session – Sterling supported by upbeat UK jobs data; dollar slips ahead of Fed minutes

Posted on August 17, 2016 at 3:06 pm GMT

The UK employment report released today was much more upbeat than one would expect in an uncertain environment caused by Brexit. The data was surprisingly robust and lent support to sterling, which mostly held above the key $1.30 level today. A high of $1.3054 was reached in the London session following the UK labour market data. In the month of July, the number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits fell by 8,600, one month after the vote to leave the EU, [..]

Asian Session – Dollar firmer on Fed rate comments; kiwi slips despite upbeat data and rise in dairy prices

Posted on August 17, 2016 at 7:49 am GMT

Fed policymakers revived talk of a possible rate hike in September after two Fed officials kept open the possibility of a move as early as next month. New York Fed President William Dudley said on the Tuesday the Fed is “edging closer” towards the point in time where it will be appropriate to raise rates further. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart sounded even more hawkish, saying “it’s conceivable” to have two rate increases this year. The remarks pushed the dollar [..]

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