Daily Market Analysis

Asian Session – Yen makes comeback following weak Chinese data

Posted on October 13, 2016 at 8:42 am GMT

The yen managed to recover its US session losses versus the greenback as a bout of risk aversion hit the markets following weak Chinese trade numbers. The yen had lost ground earlier as the dollar climbed to around 104.65 following the release of Fed minutes that showed that the arguments for and against a rate hike in September had been finely balanced. In the end, the argument that won the day and interest rates were left unchanged was that there [..]

Asian Session – Sterling rebounds on reports that parliament to be consulted on Brexit

Posted on October 12, 2016 at 8:02 am GMT

The pound managed to rebound from the 1.20 level following reports that the British Prime Minister would consult parliament on Brexit. The Australian dollar also performed well after the country’s government successfully sold a long-term bond to investors. In other currencies, euro / dollar looked set to challenge the 1.10 mark due to recent optimism about the Fed raising rates in December while the ECB is set to continue with its present policy of asset purchases and negative rates. The [..]

European Session – Euro and pound pushed lower as dollar climbs to 11-week high

Posted on October 11, 2016 at 2:44 pm GMT

Rising expectations that the Fed is on course to raise rates at its December meeting drove the US dollar to an 11-week high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday. The dollar index hit 97.49 in today’s European session as Fed Funds Futures pointed to a 70% probability of a rate hike in December. A slump in the polls for US Presidential hopeful Donald Trump provided additional support to the greenback. The next big focus for the US currency is Friday’s [..]

Asian Session – US dollar makes up payroll losses; sterling drops once more

Posted on October 11, 2016 at 7:50 am GMT

The dollar made up all the losses in view of Friday’s softer-than-expected employment report, as optimism returned about the health of the US economy and the increasing probability of a December rate hike. Sterling on the other hand was losing the ground it regained following the flash crash on concerns about the impact of Brexit. In economic data, Japan’s current account surplus climbed to 2 trillion yen in August, higher than economists’ expectations of a 1.5 trillion figure. The higher figure [..]

Asian Session – US dollar stabilizes following payrolls; Mexican peso helped by Trump recording

Posted on October 10, 2016 at 7:07 am GMT

The US dollar managed to hold its ground following slightly disappointing payrolls numbers on Friday, while the Mexican peso gained following the release of a tape containing lewd comments about women by US Presidential candidate Donald Trump. The US dollar did not extend its losses following Friday’s employment report, which reduced the chances of a rate hike in November. The case for a rate hike in December did remain strong however. A holiday in Tokyo led to reduced liquidity in [..]

European Session – Lower-than-expected nonfarm payrolls lead to dollar profit-taking

Posted on October 7, 2016 at 2:47 pm GMT

There was profit-taking on the dollar’s significant gains this week, after both the nonfarm payrolls number as well as the US unemployment rate came on the disappointing side of expectations. Dollar / yen, which was as high as 103.97 earlier during the Asian session dipped to as low as 102.85 in the wake of the employment data. The dollar was struggling to hold on to the 103 mark and was last trading at 103.01 yen. Euro / dollar also rebounded [..]

Asian Session – Pound trade “chaotic” after it breaks through major levels; currency rebounds later

Posted on October 7, 2016 at 7:09 am GMT

The British pound plunged to as low as 1.1378 against the US dollar during early Asian trading only to rebound to around 1.24 on worries that a “hard” Brexit would damage the UK economy. After the pound broke through 1.26, 1.25 and 1.24, the floor seemed to disappear and there were no buyers in the market – possibly as a result of aggressive algorithmic trading. The incident also happened while Asian trading conditions were relatively thin. Euro / pound also [..]

European Session – Dollar rallies ahead of Friday’s employment report

Posted on October 6, 2016 at 1:54 pm GMT

The US dollar was again the big winner today, as the drop of weekly jobless claims to near a 43-year low encouraged dollar bulls who bought the greenback even on the day before the all-important employment report. The dollar made a 4-week high against the yen at 103.88, while the aussie was pushed back to 0.7568. The pound was searching for a bottom versus the US dollar as heavy selling drove it to as low as 1.2625 – further down [..]

Asian Session – US dollar builds on gains following strong non-manufacturing ISM

Posted on October 6, 2016 at 6:56 am GMT

The US dollar continued to be strong in today’s Asian session – keeping and in some cases extending the previous day’s gains on a big reversal by the ISM non-manufacturing survey. The dollar appeared to be strong against all other majors – the euro, the yen, the pound and the Australian dollar. Regarding the ISM report, whereas August’s (previous month) number shocked by coming in at 51.4 from July’s 55.5, in September the index rebounded to 57.1, far exceeding expectations of [..]

European Session – Dollar surges on strong ISM but pound remains under pressure; Oil climbs to multi-month highs

Posted on October 5, 2016 at 3:05 pm GMT

Risk appetite remained subdued in Wednesday’s European session as reports that the ECB has begun informal discussions on how it will rein in its asset purchases when the time comes to end the program weighed on market sentiment. The story, which was reported by Bloomberg late on Tuesday, unnerved currency and equity markets. The euro, which had been pushed below 1.12 dollars by the bullish greenback, jumped over 100 pips to 1.1238 in US trading yesterday. It managed to hold [..]

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