Daily Market Analysis

Australian inflation rises by more than expected; aussie jumps on data

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 11:31 am GMT

Inflation in Australia rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year as food prices pushed up the headline figure. Expectations were for CPI to rise by 1.1% y/y in the third quarter and is up from the 1.0% rate of the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, CPI increased by 0.7% versus estimates of a 0.5% gain, driven higher by a sharp rise in fruit and vegetable prices. The Australian dollar jumped 0.8% to a [..]

Asian Session – US dollar drops after Tuesday’s high; aussie shines on inflation

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 7:29 am GMT

The US dollar was under some profit-taking following a fresh 9-month high for the dollar index the previous day. The Australian dollar was strong on better-than-expected inflation, while sterling bounced back from its lows after Carney’s comments the previous day. The US dollar was on the defensive during Wednesday’s Asian session after the dollar index hit a high of 99.11 the previous day on expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates before the end of the year. Some profit-taking on the [..]

European Session – Dollar hits 3-month high vs yen as pound tumbles

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 2:58 pm GMT

Risk appetite increased further in Tuesday’s European session as better-than-expected survey data out of Germany underlined the improving economic outlook for the Eurozone as well as for the global economy. Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to a 2½-year high of 110.5 in October, beating forecasts that it would stay unchanged at 109.5. The Ifo current conditions and expectations indices also increased to 2½-year highs and were significantly above consensus estimates. German and Eurozone business sentiment had taken a hit [..]

Asian Session – Yen loses ground on positive risk sentiment

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 7:15 am GMT

The yen retreated against its major peers on Tuesday, as risk appetite was relatively positive and trading was quiet, which reduced appetite for the safe haven currency. Dollar / yen managed to surpass 104; a level that served as resistance in previous sessions as positive sentiment about the greenback continued. Two developments helped the greenback the previous day. First of all, the Markit manufacturing PMI for October came in at 53.2 versus 51.5 expected – the highest in 12 months. Secondly, Chicago [..]

European Session – Dollar near 9-month high while euro firms on strong Eurozone PMIs

Posted on October 24, 2016 at 3:11 pm GMT

Currency markets were relatively subdued on the week’s first day of trading as most major pairs were stuck within their recent trading range. The euro had slid back to a 7½-month low of 1.0858 dollars earlier in the Asian session as it continued to come under pressure from the diverging policies of the Fed and the European Central Bank. However, stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI figures at the start of European trading lifted the single currency back towards the 1.09 level. Markit’s [..]

Asian Session – US dollar remains strong on rate hike expectations

Posted on October 24, 2016 at 7:04 am GMT

The US dollar index traded close to its highest since early February following a speech on Friday by a key Fed official that increased the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year. San Francisco Fed President John Williams also backed the possibility of a rate hike this year, following similar comments by the New York Fed President William Dudley earlier last week. Williams expressed the view that the economy was running at full employment and that inflation was [..]

European Session – Euro at 7½-month low; loonie falls on poor data and BoC easing expectations

Posted on October 21, 2016 at 2:56 pm GMT

The euro continued its downtrend in Friday’s European session as investors raised their expectations of the ECB announcing an extension to its asset purchase program in December. The US dollar meanwhile strengthened to near 9-month highs as measured against a basket of currencies. The dollar index is poised to end the week with gains of around 0.7%. Thursday’s remarks by ECB head Mario Draghi continued to drag the euro lower today as he put to rest fears of possible tapering [..]

Asian Session – Euro slides after ECB; pushes up dollar to 7½-month high

Posted on October 21, 2016 at 7:20 am GMT

The euro was testing the 1.09 dollar level in today’s Asian session for the first time since March as the single currency continued to come under pressure from yesterday’s ECB policy meeting. The euro’s weakness pushed up the greenback, with the dollar index climbing to a 7½-month high today. Sentiment for the euro turned bearish after ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters on Thursday that the central bank had not discussed tapering, contrary to recent rumours. And while Draghi did [..]

European Session – Euro slips as Draghi keeps markets guessing on QE extension; Dollar breaks above 104 yen

Posted on October 20, 2016 at 3:19 pm GMT

Market sentiment was mixed in Thursday’s European session as the positive effect of last night’s US presidential debate wore off and the European Central Bank failed to deliver anything new at its policy meeting today. The US dollar continued to make modest gains against the yen, rising to just above the 104 yen level in late European session. Earlier in Asian trading, the greenback had been boosted from the last of three debates between presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Donald [..]

Asian Session – Peso gains and US dollar firm following presidential debate, hawkish Fed talk

Posted on October 20, 2016 at 7:48 am GMT

The final US Presidential debate helped risk assets and the Mexican peso as Republican candidate Donald Trump did not seem to take the opportunity to score major points versus his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. Other surveys and speeches pointed to a Fed rate hike this year, which boosted the dollar. The Mexican peso initially rallied following the debate between Hillary and Trump, as USDMXN made a 6-week low of 18.45. Profit-taking and a small correction in oil (last at 51.43) [..]

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