Daily Market Analysis

European session – Strong manufacturing data out of the US, Eurozone and the UK

Posted on February 1, 2017 at 3:55 pm GMT

Today saw the release of the final manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for the month of January for the US, UK, and the Eurozone. The figures were well above the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction in the sector for all economies involved. First out was the Eurozone manufacturing PMI. The figure came in at 55.20, slightly higher than the expected 55.10 and December’s 54.90. January’s manufacturing PMI number was the highest in almost six years indicating that factories [..]

Asian session – Dollar attempts recovery after Trump and aide’s comments reopen currency wars prospect

Posted on February 1, 2017 at 8:33 am GMT

The US dollar was trying to regain some ground following a selloff, as President Trump together with an administration official responsible for trade policy, castigated countries like China, Japan and Germany for their currency policies. Specifically, Trump and his administration official Peter Navarro said that other countries were using undervalued currencies to gain an unfair trade advantage. This created concern to dollar bulls that the greenback would now also become an instrument of trade policy, together with other protectionist measures that [..]

European Session – Dollar sinks on Trump’s currency comments; Euro surges to 7-week high

Posted on January 31, 2017 at 4:13 pm GMT

Eurozone economic data dominated financial news as flash inflation figures for January, the unemployment rate for December and preliminary estimates for fourth quarter GDP were all released today. Delving into the numbers, headline inflation for January came in at 1.8% year-on-year, above the 1.6% expected and December’s 1.1%. This figure was the highest since February 2013. Core inflation, the figure excluding volatile food and energy prices, was in line with expectations and stable relative to the previous month’s 0.9% y/y [..]

Asian session – Dollar steadies lower as safe havens gain on risk aversion

Posted on January 31, 2017 at 8:44 am GMT

The US dollar traded mostly sideways during today’s Asian session after reversing the sharp gains of the previous day on worries that the new US administration’s policies on immigration and trade could create uncertainty. Mainly benefitting from the US currency’s weakness was the Japanese yen, as dollar / yen dropped below 114 to 113.60. Dollar / yen was still about a yen away from the previous week’s 112.52 two-month low. Euro / dollar was trying to climb back above 1.07 [..]

European Session – Resurgent yen pushes dollar below 114; euro and pound also under pressure

Posted on January 30, 2017 at 4:23 pm GMT

Market sentiment remained risk-off in Monday’s European session as US President Trump’s actions continued to worry investors. The President’s decision on Friday to ban refugees from entering the US and to impose travel restrictions on seven Muslim-majority nations triggered a political backlash both in the US and internationally. It also raised expectations that Trump would follow through with his other campaign pledges, and given his views on China, this raised the prospect of a new trade war. The concerns weighed [..]

Asian session – US dollar recovery challenged by weak data, Trump actions

Posted on January 30, 2017 at 8:22 am GMT

The US dollar traded mostly sideways on Monday, as an attempt to drive it lower in mid-Asian session failed. Still the dollar had trouble fully overcoming headwinds like Friday’s weak GDP numbers as well as Trump’s latest controversial executive order that banned immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East and Africa. The dollar index traded as low as 100.17, before coming back to 100.40 in late Asian trading. Friday’s close was at 100.56. On Friday, data showed that [..]

European session – Dollar extends rebound despite US GDP miss

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 4:53 pm GMT

The US dollar made an effort to extend its comeback today as the markets seemed to be shifting focus from Trump’s protectionist messages to his pro-growth policies. Weaker-than-expected GDP growth pulled back the dollar from earlier gains, though this pull back does not seem enough for now to lead the dollar index to levels below yesterday’s close. US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% during the fourth quarter of 2016 per advance estimates. Expectations were for a 2.2% [..]

Asian session – US dollar makes comeback on growth optimism

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 8:42 am GMT

The US dollar clawed back some of its recent losses during Friday’s Asian trading on optimism about US economic prospects and as some market participants speculated that the dollar’s recent losses had gone too far. The dollar index extended its run above the 100 mark to around 100.80, as the greenback posted solid gains across the board against other majors. Euro / dollar was pushed below the 1.07 level down to 1.0662, while dollar / yen rallied above 115 to [..]

European Session – Dollar bounces back on higher treasury yields, pushing euro and pound lower

Posted on January 26, 2017 at 4:29 pm GMT

The positive sentiment from the Dow Jones’ record break above the 20,000 level carried forward to Thursday’s European session, though risk appetite ebbed slightly in afternoon trading. European equities were mixed in late session, while 10-year US treasury yields rallied to a 4-week high. The higher yields spurred the US dollar to finally break out of the past day’s tight trading range, helping it climb above 114 yen. Investor concerns about Donald Trump’s policies on trade and immigration have been [..]

Asian session – Dollar index stays below 100 while pound rallies to 6-week highs

Posted on January 26, 2017 at 8:41 am GMT

The US dollar remained under pressure because of various protectionist initiatives by the new US administration, while the pound rallied to 6-week highs on optimism of a quick trade deal between the UK and the US, as well as progress on triggering Article 50. Despite a rising US stock market as well as higher US Treasury yields, the dollar was unable to make headway as foreign investors were wary of Trump’s protectionist policies, according to analysts. The new president authorized [..]

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