Daily Market Analysis

Asian Session – Dollar boosted by more hawkish Fed speak; Brainard lifts expectations of March rate hike

Posted on March 2, 2017 at 8:28 am GMT

Dollar strength dominated the markets as a more hawkish tone from the Fed raised the probability of a rate hike this month. FOMC member Lael Brainard, who is usually dovish, gave a hawkish speech yesterday and hinted at an early rate increase. Brainard’s bullish comments follow those of other Fed speakers who have also recently supported their view that it was appropriate to increase rates soon. Earlier this week, New York Fed President William Dudley, a known dove, said the [..]

European Session – Dollar gains as odds of a March rate hike increase

Posted on March 1, 2017 at 3:56 pm GMT

It was a busy session in European trading today as market participants were evaluating US President Donald Trump’s first speech before Congress while there was an abundance of economic data releases to digest as well. Trump’s speech on the one hand offered some relief as the US President appeared more conciliatory in his comments than in the past. On the other hand though, he didn’t deliver as much as expected regarding the specifics on how he plans to deliver on [..]

Asian Session – Dollar rises on Fed rate hike expectations despite lack of details on Trump policies

Posted on March 1, 2017 at 8:16 am GMT

The main focus of the markets was US President Donald Trump’s testimony in front of Congress. Trump’s speech was optimistic about the US economy and markets welcomed his pro-growth agenda. But nothing new was said and there was a lack of clarification on infrastructure spending, tax and regulatory relief, aside from asking Congress to set aside $1 trillion for infrastructure spending. The dollar initially fell as Trump spoke, as investors were disappointed there were no details on policies. Dollar / [..]

European Session – Dollar extends losses after US GDP data but main focus is Trump speech

Posted on February 28, 2017 at 3:38 pm GMT

It was a relatively subdued European session, as investors waited for US President Donald Trump’s Congressional Testimony later in the day. Such a big event carries a high degree of risk and uncertainty and will likely be market moving, especially if Trump disappoints. There are expectations for hints on the timeline on tax reforms and more clarity on infrastructure spending and revenue generating policies. Slight risk aversion in the markets helped support safe havens such as the yen and the [..]

Asian Session – Dollar trims gains versus yen ahead of Trump budget speech

Posted on February 28, 2017 at 8:08 am GMT

The dollar index opened in Asia marginally higher than yesterday’s close after hawkish comments from FOMC member Rob Kaplan helped underpin the greenback. Speaking at an event in Oregon yesterday, Kaplan reiterated his view that a rate hike should come sooner rather than later. This helped the dollar / yen move off an 18-day low that was below 112-yen, to rise to a high of 112.83. But the dollar reversed throughout today’s Asian session as investors shifted their focus to a [..]

European Session – Euro rises to $1.06; dollar weak ahead of Trump budget speech

Posted on February 27, 2017 at 7:02 pm GMT

The euro strengthened against the dollar on news of more favorable opinion polls for independent French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron. The US dollar lagged against most major counterparts despite upbeat durable goods orders data, as investors await US President Donald Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday when he is expected to reveal details of his spending plans and tax cuts. Trump’s speech may disappoint the markets if he does not give more specifics in terms of numbers or a more [..]

Asian Session – Dollar lacks momentum ahead of Trump speech; Pound falls on Scottish referendum talk

Posted on February 27, 2017 at 7:42 am GMT

Sterling was the worst performing major currency in the Asian session today on reports of a possible Scottish independence vote. The dollar lacked momentum ahead of a raft of US economic data and speeches by President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week. The pound dipped as much as 0.6 percent against the dollar to touch a session low of 1.2390 after a Times newspaper report said UK Prime Minister Theresa May could agree to a new [..]

European Session – Trump reflation trade in doubt again, dollar slightly down

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 4:34 pm GMT

Barring Canadian inflation data, US new home sales, and the final print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index there were no important economic data releases hitting the markets today. Market participants were for the most part digesting developments in the political scene and placing positions accordingly. The dollar has gained significantly on expectations of fiscal reforms by the Trump administration. However, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s latest comments on expecting tax reforms to start benefitting the economy next [..]

Asian Session – Gold at 3-month highs on softer dollar after Mnuchin comments

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 7:59 am GMT

Gold consolidated gains at a 3-month high as the US dollar was on track to end the week with losses. The greenback touched a 2-week low against the yen on Thursday after being weighed by disappointing US jobless claims data and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s remarks. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased by 6,000 to 244,000 in the week ending February 18 from the previous week’s revised total of 238,000. Expectations were for jobless claims to [..]

Asian Session – Euro recovers as French election concerns ease; dollar steadies after drop following FOMC minutes

Posted on February 23, 2017 at 8:11 am GMT

The US dollar fell sharply after the release of the FOMC minutes late on Wednesday. Despite saying that a rate hike would be appropriate ‘fairly soon’, the minutes of the January 31- February 1 Fed policy meeting did not pinpoint a March hike. Since the markets did not view the minutes as hawkish as was hoped for, the dollar was sold off, and it fell below the key 113-yen level briefly. In the minutes, there appeared to be a lack [..]

Legal disclaimer: The material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments. XM accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences resulting in it. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The research and analysis does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.

It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research, and as such it is considered to be marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of the publication of our research, we do not seek to take advantage of it before we provide it to our clients. We aim to establish, maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. We operate a policy of independence, which requires our employees to act in our clients’ best interests and to disregard any conflicts of interest in providing our services.

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losing all of your invested capital, so please make sure that you fully understand the risks involved.

How can we help?

Live Chat Terms