Daily Market Analysis

Asian Session – Dollar continues its climb as odds of hike rise above 90%

Posted on March 9, 2017 at 8:25 am GMT

The dollar continued rising after yesterday’s strong ADP National Employment Report, which showed robust growth in private-sector payrolls. A rate hike during next week’s FOMC meeting is now considered near-certain as the odds of one materializing now exceed 90% based on CME Group’s 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices. It is now unlikely that tomorrow’s US employment report will be weak enough to sway the Fed away from a rate hike. The dollar index continued to advance and should it finish [..]

European Session – Dollar surges on strong ADP jobs data; Pound steadies after UK budget

Posted on March 8, 2017 at 3:49 pm GMT

Expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes once again dominated European trading on Wednesday after robust US data underlined the case for near-term monetary tightening. The US dollar surged well past 114 yen on the data, while the British pound was able to find some support from the UK government’s first full budget after Brexit. After a slow start to the day, the dollar reversed gear to become the strongest performing currency by late European session. The greenback was [..]

Asian Session – Yen rises after Japan GDP data; sterling weak ahead of UK Budget

Posted on March 8, 2017 at 8:51 am GMT

The yen was one of the better performing major currencies today due to a bit of risk aversion in the markets. The US dollar edged slightly lower as investors took on a more cautious stance ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions due to North Korean missile tests also brought on some risk aversion. Chinese trade balance data showed exports were weak and this was a bit disappointing. China reported a $9.15 billion trade deficit in February. This was [..]

European Session – Dollar advances despite worsening trade gap

Posted on March 7, 2017 at 4:13 pm GMT

The dollar was broadly stronger today relative to major counterparts though, with the exception of pound / dollar, its gains were moderate and evenly spread. US and Canadian trade data, as well as Eurozone GDP numbers were on investors’ radar today. US trade data for January showed that the trade deficit rose to a near five-year high as increasing oil prices lifted the import bill for the US. This hints that net exports, a component in the calculation of GDP, would [..]

Asian Session – Aussie rises after RBA; greenback steady as markets eye risk events

Posted on March 7, 2017 at 8:23 am GMT

It was a relatively quiet Asian session with most currencies trading in a range as investors were cautious ahead of upcoming risk events such as this week’s US jobs report and the March 14-15 Federal Reserve policy meeting, while political uncertainties in Europe also led to a lackluster session. The Australian dollar was the best performing major currency after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady and maintained an optimistic view on the economy. The main cash rate [..]

European Session – Euro hurt by never ending French presidential drama; US jobs report to cement rate hike

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 3:50 pm GMT

In the absence of economic data releases, barring the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index and factory orders out of the US, market participants’ attention remained on geopolitical tensions and on the last piece of the puzzle to cement an interest rate hike during the FOMC meeting scheduled to take place next week, namely Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against the currencies of six major trading partners, was back up today after experiencing a [..]

Asian Session – Yen strengthens on safe haven demand

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 8:37 am GMT

Risk aversion due to geopolitical concerns weighed on markets during Monday’s Asian session. The yen was stronger as investors moved into safe havens following news of a North Korean missile launch. The dollar slipped against the yen in Asian session trading to reach a low of 113.65, moving further off last week’s high of 114.74 when then greenback was boosted on growing expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. The dollar index was down 0.1 [..]

European Session – Euro strengthens as Macron rises in the polls; Yellen in focus

Posted on March 3, 2017 at 4:50 pm GMT

Today’s European session was a relatively quiet one in terms of economic data with market participants mostly focusing on what’s to come later in the day, namely Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Chicago. Services PMI data, including the composite one for the Eurozone did gather some attention though. The US non-manufacturing PMI for February came in at a healthy 57.6, surpassing expectations and January’s 56.5. The figure points to growth in the services sector for the eighty-fifth month in [..]

Asian Session – Dollar fades strength ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech; yen gains after Japan CPI

Posted on March 3, 2017 at 8:29 am GMT

The dollar faded its recent strength that was driven by increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this month. The yen strengthened after four days of losses, following data that showed a moderate rise in Japanese inflation. Japan’s core CPI number rose 0.1% year-on-year in January and was the first increase since December 2015. It was expected to remain flat after a 0.2% decline in December. The uptick in inflation would be a relief for the Bank of Japan, although [..]

European Session – Dollar at 7-week high on strengthening prospects of March rate hike

Posted on March 2, 2017 at 4:02 pm GMT

March Fed rate hike expectations continued to drive the dollar higher in today’s European session, while in terms of economic data, weekly jobless claims out of the US, Eurozone inflation and unemployment rate data and Canadian GDP figures were of most interest. The number of US jobless claimants fell to 223,000 last week from 242,000 the previous week. This points to a healthy jobs market and marks a near forty-four-year low, while it was below analysts’ forecasts of a 243,000 [..]

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