Forex Previews

Week Ahead – Markets feel the blues ahead of US employment report

Posted on September 25, 2020 at 12:00 pm GMT

A perfect storm of bad news has thrown global markets into disarray. America is running out of stimulus, fears of a constitutional crisis after the election are running rampant, Europe is wrestling with a second virus wave, and central banks have moved from ‘all in’ to ‘check’ in poker terms. Considering all this, the upcoming US employment report could be a make-or-break event for the dollar and equities. In the political arena, Brexit talks will resume in Brussels while Trump [..]

SNB: Keeping a rate bullet in the chamber – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 22, 2020 at 3:25 pm GMT

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will conclude its meeting at 07:30 GMT Thursday, and with Switzerland having fallen back into deflation, markets are pricing in a 30% chance for a small rate cut. That said, the SNB already boasts the lowest rates worldwide, so it is unlikely to cut any deeper as running out of policy ammunition would risk generating a negative expectations loop. Instead, it will probably stick to huge FX interventions. The franc may tick higher on the [..]

RBNZ: Another dose of dovishness – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 21, 2020 at 3:33 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will wrap up its policy meeting at 02:00 GMT Wednesday. No action is expected, so the market reaction might depend on the overall tone of the statement, any changes to the timing of the next rate cut, and how open policymakers appear towards buying foreign assets. Economic data have deteriorated and the RBNZ’s own forecasts are grim, implying the Bank is likely to stick to dovish language, helping to keep a lid on the [..]

EU flash PMIs may not revive recovery hopes as virus threat rises – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 21, 2020 at 3:33 pm GMT

The significant slowdown in Eurozone’s PMI readings dashed hopes of a V-shaped recovery in August. A month later, the new update due on Wednesday at 09:00 GMT is not expected to plug the hole. Perhaps the outlook for the euro area may remain cloudy as virus cases have started to rise at an alarming rate. With forecasts placed close to previous figures, any negative surprise could hurt the euro unless dollar weakness comes to the rescue again. Alternatively, an upbeat [..]

Flash PMIs to underline UK recovery but pound slips on lockdown and Brexit fears – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 21, 2020 at 3:24 pm GMT

Investors will get a first look into the progress of the UK’s economic recovery in September when the flash PMIs are released on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT. The closely watched indicators are likely to show that Britain’s economy was on the mend in the early parts of September. But as coronavirus cases soar across the country, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce tough new restrictions on Tuesday that could severely curtail the recovery just as businesses enjoy some [..]

Week Ahead – Tracking the recovery: is Europe lagging the US?

Posted on September 18, 2020 at 12:54 pm GMT

The latest flash PMI releases will dominate the economic agenda next week as the recovery in the United States appears to be picking up a gear, while the European rebound may have hit a snag. The tables have been turning lately in the US vs Eurozone recovery story, threatening to unravel the euro rally. Trying to predict the economic comeback from the pandemic will also be preoccupying policymakers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at their September meeting amid [..]

New Zealand to join global recession club as RBNZ readies next move – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 16, 2020 at 2:37 pm GMT

New Zealand will report GDP numbers for the second quarter on Thursday (Wednesday, 22:45 GMT) and will be the last of the major advanced economies to do so. Currently, the United Kingdom is at the bottom of the Q2 growth table and Australia is at the top. The GDP data is likely to show New Zealand falls somewhere in the lower range of that table, taking a bigger hit than its aussie neighbour. But with a recovery now underway, the [..]

BoE policy meeting: laying the groundwork for November – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 16, 2020 at 10:34 am GMT

The Bank of England is one of three central banks to hold a meeting this week. Markets do not expect any shift in policy when the rate announcement is made on Thursday at 12:00 GMT though the Brexit headache has resurfaced after the summer break, reminding markets that COVID-19 is not the only downside risk to the economy. Hence, although the event may not be an exciting one, any hints that the Bank is planning or is willing to pull out its guns again before the year end may shake [..]

Aussie ticks up ahead of employment data – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 16, 2020 at 5:56 am GMT

Australia’s employment data for July will hit the markets at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, following on from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes on Tuesday. The economy is going through a very difficult period and is experiencing the biggest contraction since 1930. Consequently, the RBA’s board has reaffirmed its pledge not to increase the cash rate until progress is made towards full employment. Nevertheless, the aussie continues to move higher against the US dollar but may soon need a boost for stronger bullish movements. Labour market conditions are [..]

Bank of Japan to turn sights on recovery progress as Suga takes over as PM – Forex News Preview

Posted on September 15, 2020 at 2:45 pm GMT

The Bank of Japan is expected to hold its fire when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday, keeping its emergency stimulus measures intact. However, with growing evidence that the global economic recovery from the pandemic remains on a solid footing despite the sharp resurgence of the virus in many countries, including Japan, the BoJ is expected to add its own upbeat take on the economy. But, as far as the yen is concerned, it is politics that [..]

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