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Forex News – New Zealand inflation raises chances of rate hike; kiwi benefits

Posted on January 21, 2014 at 2:00 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12786" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] The release of inflation figures for the fourth quarter in New Zealand surprised economists as they were expecting a drop in inflation by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Instead, inflation rose by 0.1% and the year-on-year increase came in at 1.6%. Although the rate of annual inflation does not represent a serious issue at this point, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand likes to focus more on price pressures in the non-tradable goods and services category [..]

Forex News – Week Ahead: flash PMI data focus point for (what should be) a quiet week

Posted on January 20, 2014 at 1:41 pm GMT

The beginning of the week could be relatively quiet because of the Martin Luther King Jr. national holiday in the United States on Monday and the lack of important data announcements out of Europe. When the US returns to work on Tuesday, there will only be a week left until the beginning of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which could decide to taper its asset purchase program by an additional 10 billion dollars. Therefore, there will be no Fed speakers [..]

Forex News – UK shoppers smashed expectations in run-up to Christmas

Posted on January 17, 2014 at 1:03 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12734" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] The release of December retail sales showed that UK consumers ratcheted up their spending in the run-up to Christmas last year. The month-on-month increase was 2.6% compared to a 0.3% increase the previous month and much higher than a 0.4% rise that was expected by economists. The year-on-year increase was 5.3% in real, inflation-adjusted terms, while in October the annual rate of increase was 1.8% – downwardly revised from 2.0% originally reported. As [..]

Forex News – Australian December employment report disappoints, drives aussie to 3 ½ year low

Posted on January 16, 2014 at 12:53 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12704" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] Today’s employment report for Australia during December contained some negative surprises for analysts. Instead of creating around 7,500 jobs during the previous month as economists had expected, the Australian economy actually shed 22,600 jobs. The job losses were the biggest since March of 2013, when the economy lost 33,800 jobs. November’s employment gains were also downwardly revised to 15,400 compared to 21,000 originally reported. It should be noted of course that despite the [..]

Forex News – German GDP growth for 2013 positive at 0.4% but weaker-than-expected

Posted on January 15, 2014 at 3:13 pm GMT

2013 was another lackluster year for the German economy, as it only expanded by 0.4%, lower than economists’ expectation for an expansion of 0.5%. Growth for 2013 was down from the 0.7% rate posted during 2012. Overall one could say the German economy did not do well, until it is compared with the entire Eurozone economy. Eurozone GDP growth has not come out yet as Germany was the first major developed country to announce a preliminary GDP growth rate for [..]

Forex News – Retail sales data show US consumer in good form during December

Posted on January 14, 2014 at 3:17 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12659" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] Following the disappointing employment report, today’s advance retail sales for December was the most important indicator of the current week concerning the US economy. Specifically, the question is whether the much weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls is an indication of a weakening US economy or if other indicators are pointing to a decent economic recovery and that the employment report was a weather-related one-off. Following today’s release on retail sales, the indication is that consumer [..]

Forex News – Week ahead: more data to shed light on fed tapering pace

Posted on January 13, 2014 at 1:20 pm GMT

Following the weaker-than-expected employment report the previous Friday, the main focus of the week ahead will be what fresh data imply about the strength of the US economy. Specifically, a key number that will be watched is the advance December retail sales for the United States. This report should yield crucial clues as to how the US consumer behaved during the all-important Christmas shopping period. Strong spending during that period could provide the economy with a substantial boost and will [..]

Forex News – US December Nonfarm payrolls disappoint but miss could be weather-related

Posted on January 10, 2014 at 3:34 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12437" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] The announcement of much lower-than-expected nonfarm payrolls for December caused a temporary upset for the markets but its longer-term significance might prove questionable. Payrolls for December came in at only 74 thousand versus economists’ expectations of gains of 196 thousand. On a positive note, November’s nonfarm payroll figure was revised upwards to 241 thousand from 203 first reported. Although the news has ‘shock value’, it is quite plausible that some special circumstances such [..]

Forex News – Fed meeting minutes point to more tapering

Posted on January 9, 2014 at 1:14 pm GMT

The release of the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 17/18 signaled that perhaps the market was underestimating the Fed’s willingness, if not to actually tighten soon, to reduce the amount of monetary stimulus. During the meeting, certain Fed Governors noted that the benefit from additional asset purchases seemed to be outweighed by certain significant and rising costs. These costs, according to participants in the meeting, were risks to financial stability as this easy [..]

Forex News – Eurozone on the mend say stocks, periphery bonds- will the euro benefit?

Posted on January 8, 2014 at 1:21 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12387" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] One of the major investment themes of 2014 is expected to be increased interest in European assets. 2013 saw significant inflows into European equities as the region exited recession in the second quarter of the year. Ireland successfully exited its 3-year bailout program recently. Looking for assets that have underperformed so far during the global bull market in equities, European and certain emerging market countries appeared to fit the bill of having underperformed [..]

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