Forex Previews

Australian unemployment rate ticks up as job creation falls in April

Posted on May 7, 2015 at 9:45 am GMT

The Australian unemployment rate was in line with economists’ expectations, ticking up to 6.2% in April from 6.1% in March. After two months of strong gains, the number of jobs created last month fell by 2,900, despite forecasts for a gain of 5,000 jobs. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, full-time employment fell by 21,900 while part-time jobs rose 19,000. Over the twelve months to April, a total of 177,600 jobs were created. Meanwhile, the employment figures for March [..]

Rise in government bond yields could have important consequences for global markets

Posted on May 6, 2015 at 11:46 am GMT

Government bond yields have shot up around the world in recent weeks. This could have important repercussions for asset markets around the world, as well as foreign exchange because relative interest rate differentials will also change. Higher government bond yields could be the result of the unwinding of excess speculation that drove yields to unrealistically low levels, or a sign that the global economy was recovering and that the threat of deflation was much less. Perhaps the most important move [..]

EC raises European growth outlook but slashes forecast for Greece

Posted on May 5, 2015 at 2:49 pm GMT

The European Commission published its spring economic outlook for the European Union today, raising its outlook for economic growth for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone. GDP growth for 2015 for the Eurozone was raised from 1.3% to 1.5%, and from 1.7% to 1.8% in the EU as a whole from its last forecast in its winter outlook. This compares to 0.9% growth in the Eurozone in 2014 and 1.4% growth for the EU. For 2016, the forecast is [..]

Reserve Bank of Australia delivers rate cut but probably the last one for a while

Posted on May 5, 2015 at 9:58 am GMT

Today’s RBA meeting was keenly awaited as the consensus was that the central bank would cut interest rates after staying put during the previous month. In the event the consensus did get what it expected, as the bank cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 2.00%. Since October of 2011, the RBA has cut rates by a total of 275 basis points. There was a period of stable rates between August 2013 and January 2015 [..]

Weak Chinese April Manufacturing PMI raises hopes of further stimulus

Posted on May 4, 2015 at 9:52 am GMT

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China out on Monday showed the PMI index continued to decline for the second consecutive month at 48.9 in April, which was significantly below estimates of 49.4. April’s figure was a faster contraction than March’s 49.6 and the weakest in a year. The main factor for the poor figure was lower domestic demand, which led to a fall in new business and in new orders, as well as in employment where manufacturing jobs fell for [..]

Busy week ahead includes UK elections, nonfarm payrolls and RBA

Posted on May 1, 2015 at 9:58 am GMT

Next week will be an event-filled week, with the UK general elections, Greece’s debt payments to the IMF and US nonfarm payrolls all likely to grab the market’s attention. On Thursday, the much awaited UK parliamentary elections will be held. The pound has been coming under increasing pressure due to a lot of uncertainty surrounding this event as the race has been quite close, with no clear leader in the polls, although the Conservatives only recently managed to gain some [..]

Eurozone April inflation rises to 0%; Unemployment stays unchanged at 11.3%

Posted on April 30, 2015 at 11:40 am GMT

Consumer prices in the Eurozone stopped falling for the first time since November 2014 as the flash Eurozone inflation figures showed that the consumer price index rose to 0.0% in April on a year-on-year basis, compared to -0.1% in March. This was in line with forecasts. Core CPI, which excludes volatile factors such as food and energy, came in at 0.6%, also in line with forecasts and unchanged from the previous month’s rate. The main harmonized CPI was pushed higher [..]

Dollar surges as Fed signals slowing economy due to transitory factors

Posted on April 29, 2015 at 7:01 pm GMT

The US dollar popped higher against most major counterparts after the Federal Reserve released its monetary statement on Wednesday following a two-day meeting of its policy-setting committee. There were no surprises and the overall tone of the statement was somewhat flat, and mostly in line with market expectations. The Fed acknowledged weakness in the US economy but stressed that it was due to transitory factors (such as the weather). This comment sent the dollar higher. It surged against the yen [..]

US growth rate falls to near-zero, hurting the dollar

Posted on April 29, 2015 at 2:19 pm GMT

The US annualized growth rate for the first quarter fell to 0.2%, much below expectations of a 1.0% growth number and a fraction of the previous quarter’s 2.2% rate. Although the miss was substantial, it appears that some one-off factors combined to keep GDP low. The final sales measure of GDP, which excludes inventory buildup, was even worse as it contracted by 0.5%. Real GDP growth would have been even less than 0.2% had it not been for deflation, as [..]

First quarter UK GDP growth slows to sharper than expected 0.3%

Posted on April 28, 2015 at 11:26 am GMT

Preliminary GDP figures for the United Kingdom published today showed the UK economy slowing much more sharply than expected in the first quarter of 2015. The first estimate of GDP showed that the quarterly growth rate halved to 0.3% in the first quarter, from the 0.6% recorded in the last quarter of 2014. Compared to a year ago, first quarter GDP was up 2.4% from the first quarter of 2014, below estimates of 2.6% growth. This was the slowest rate [..]

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