Forex Previews

UK inflation turns negative for first time since 1960

Posted on May 19, 2015 at 11:33 am GMT

UK consumer prices declined by 0.1% in April from a year earlier as lower transport costs continued to drag prices lower. The CPI index rose by just 0.2% on the month in April, against forecasts that it would rise by 0.4%. In March, year-on-year CPI was unchanged at 0% and expectations were that it would remain unchanged in April as well. This was the lowest figure since 1960 based on comparable estimates. Core CPI also came in lower than expected [..]

Recent oil price spike uncertain to hold as supply remains high

Posted on May 18, 2015 at 1:43 pm GMT

Crude oil prices have staged an impressive recovery this year as Brent Crude price has risen from the January low of $46.59 per barrel to around $66 per barrel in May. This is a jump of about 44% in the space of four months but prices remain well below the peaks above $110 per barrel seen between 2011 and 2014. Much of the fall in prices is attributed to oversupply and lower than expected demand. The US has seen a [..]

Week ahead – April CPI data and BoJ meeting to dominate

Posted on May 15, 2015 at 10:33 am GMT

A flurry of economic data is expected next week for the Eurozone, UK, US and Japan as we move into the third week of the month. The US will see CPI figures for April coming out on Friday, where consumer prices are expected to rise to 0% year-on-year in April from -0.1% in March. Before that though, the FOMC minutes for the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting are published on Wednesday, which will be highly watched by the markets for any [..]

Recent run of mixed data puts timing of Fed rate hike back in doubt

Posted on May 14, 2015 at 1:07 pm GMT

Expectations of the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2006 has dominated the markets in recent months as US economic fundamentals continue to improve. But as the deeper-than-expected slowdown in first quarter growth has led to a batch of mixed data, analysts have been split on when the rate rise will come. Unemployment data is one of the key indicators that the Fed looks at and the fall in the unemployment rate since the start [..]

Sterling volatile after BoE cut in growth outlook takes shine off strong employment data

Posted on May 13, 2015 at 11:40 am GMT

The pound was sent in opposite directions today as strong employment and wage growth data was overshadowed by the Bank of England’s lowering of growth forecasts for the next three years. UK unemployment fell to its lowest level since July 2008 to 5.5% in March from 5.6% in February, in line with forecasts. The claimant count change was also down but it dropped by less than expected to 12,600 in April, against forecasts of 20,000. The employment rate increased to [..]

Eurozone economy expands in Q1 but Germany slows down

Posted on May 13, 2015 at 10:53 am GMT

The Eurozone grew at its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter of 2015 as indicated by the flash estimate for GDP from Eurostat. Better-than-forecast growth in France and Italy, the second and third largest economies in the Euro area, helped the overall Eurozone GDP figure come in at 0.4% q/q in Q1 up from 0.3% in Q4 of 2014. However, the data missed forecasts made by economists polled by Reuters for a 0.5% growth rate. Year-on-year, GDP [..]

Greece makes progress on talks but Eurogroup urges more action

Posted on May 12, 2015 at 10:25 am GMT

Monday’s Eurogroup meeting of European finance ministers ended on a more positive note than the last gathering in April where there was a complete breakdown of talks between the Greek finance minister and his European counterparts. The Eurogroup statement at the conclusion of the meeting struck a more conciliatory note and acknowledged that progress had been made in the talks between Greece and its creditors. The Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis was quoted as saying that there had been “considerable [..]

China cuts rates by 25bps to stave off slowdown

Posted on May 11, 2015 at 12:07 pm GMT

China’s central bank on Sunday cut its benchmark rates for the third time in six months as growing evidence points to a deepening slowdown of the Chinese economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut its benchmark one-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1%, and its benchmark deposit rate also by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The Bank also lifted its deposit-rate ceiling to 150% of the benchmark from 130%. Shares jumped on the news with the main [..]

Week Ahead – UK and Eurozone data to be in focus on backdrop of UK elections and Greek talks

Posted on May 8, 2015 at 11:29 am GMT

The week ahead is set to be another busy one as a host of economic data is released while the UK election outcome and Greek debt negotiations will also likely grab attention at the start of the week. The pound will be in focus again as markets will await for news of the new Conservative cabinet taking shape and whether it will involve any coalition partners. Some sort of coalition agreement, whether a loose deal or a formal pact is [..]

Pound soars as early count points to victory for the Conservatives

Posted on May 8, 2015 at 8:15 am GMT

The pound rose sharply in Asian trading after the first exit polls revealed a strong surge for the Conservatives. Various polls throughout the election campaign had the Conservatives running neck and neck with the Labour party. But the Conservatives are now clearly in the lead as the largest party in Westminster and appear to be in with a strong chance of achieving a small majority. Sterling jumped by around 1% against both the dollar and the euro soon after the [..]

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