Forex Previews

China manufacturing PMI expands marginally, more stimulus expected

Posted on June 1, 2015 at 8:20 am GMT

The official publication of China’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) remained in expansion territory after rising to 50.2 in May, up from 50.1 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 represents contraction. The PMI has been above the expansion/contraction threshold for the last three months. The continuing recovery in the world’s second largest economy has been a result of a string of easing measures by the Chinese government. Despite the headline PMI showing manufacturing [..]

Week Ahead – US employment data will be key as no surprises expected from ECB, RBA and BoE meetings

Posted on May 29, 2015 at 12:06 pm GMT

Next week will see the release of PMI manufacturing and services data for the US, Eurozone, the UK and China, as well as monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Eurozone data is likely to dominate the week with the release of May’s final Markit manufacturing and services PMI for the bloc. Euro area PMI for manufacturing is out on Monday and services PMI is released on Wednesday. Individual [..]

Eurozone economic sentiment holds steady in May

Posted on May 28, 2015 at 1:13 pm GMT

Economic sentiment in the Eurozone was unchanged in May at 103.8, remaining at 4-year highs. The figure is slightly ahead of a Reuter’s poll that it would come in at 103.5. Sentiment was also stable in the wider European Union, unchanged at 106.4. In a separate report, the business climate indicator for the Eurozone fell slightly in May from April but stayed positive at +0.28. Confidence improved in services, retail trade and in the construction sector during May. Services was [..]

Strong durable goods and housing data adds fuel to dollar rally

Posted on May 26, 2015 at 3:08 pm GMT

US total durable goods orders fell by 0.5% in April from the previous month, in line with forecasts. But March’s figure was revised upwards to 5.1%. Excluding transport, durable goods orders rose by 0.5% on the month, against expectations of a 0.3% rise according to a Reuters poll, and March’s figure was also revised higher to 0.6% from -0.2%. The underlying improvement in business investment is further evident by looking at the core figure for non-defense capital goods orders excluding [..]

Fed Chair’s promise for interest rate hike boosts dollar

Posted on May 25, 2015 at 9:28 am GMT

The US dollar received a boost on Friday as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she expects rates will start to head higher “at some point this year”. The fact that the Fed intends to increase interest rates – given of course that the US economy maintains its dynamism – was a boost to the US dollar which had been troubled by the prospect that rates could stay near zero for this year as well. US economic data had mostly underwhelmed [..]

Dollar jumps after US core inflation rises more than expected

Posted on May 22, 2015 at 2:29 pm GMT

US April inflation data out today triggered fears in the markets that inflation in the United States will rise closer to the Fed’s 2% target sooner than anticipated, pushing forward expectations of a rate rise. Consumer prices in April rose by 0.1% on the month from March, in line with forecasts, giving a year-on-year rate of -0.2%, which is lower than March’s -0.1%. However, the all-important core CPI rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices from the index [..]

Week Ahead – US Q1 GDP could get revised down; Japan inflation to dip close to 0%

Posted on May 22, 2015 at 12:21 pm GMT

The coming week will be relatively quieter following the past week’s data-packed schedule. Monday will be the quietest with very thin trading expected as all major European markets, as well as the US are closed for a bank holiday. The United States will see the release of durable goods orders on Tuesday, which is expected to fall by 1% in April after a 4% rise in March. Services PMI by Markit out the same day is forecast to show a [..]

Eurozone Flash PMI mixed but strong manufacturing sends euro higher

Posted on May 21, 2015 at 12:22 pm GMT

The Markit Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May were published this morning, containing some surprises that reversed the euro’s earlier decline. First out was French PMI, showing an improvement in both the manufacturing and services PMI over the previous month. French Flash Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction but came in much stronger than expected at 49.3 versus estimates of 48.6. In April, the figure was 48.0. Flash Services PMI was weaker than expected at 51.6 versus estimates of 52.0 [..]

Fed Minutes Reveal June Rate Hike Unlikely

Posted on May 21, 2015 at 8:56 am GMT

The Federal Reserve published the minutes of its April FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which signalled that a June rate hike was unlikely. Markets had already discounted the low likelihood of a June increase as first quarter GDP growth was much weaker than expected and recent data were pointing to a soft start to the second quarter. The minutes showed that few of the FOMC participants expected that there would be sufficient improvement in the economic outlook by the time of [..]

Japan Q1 GDP rises faster than expected but economy still seen as lacking momentum

Posted on May 20, 2015 at 11:39 am GMT

Japan’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year during the first quarter of 2015. Quarter-on quarter growth was 0.6% between January-March, beating consensus estimates that it would grow by 0.4%. This exceeds the previous quarter’s growth of 0.3%, which was revised down from 0.4%, and is the second consecutive quarter of positive growth after contracting in both the second and third quarters of 2014. A breakdown of the quarter’s GDP shows that rising business inventories was the main [..]

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