Forex Previews

Eurozone slips back into deflation in September

Posted on September 30, 2015 at 1:47 pm GMT

Eurozone inflation fell back into negative territory in September, figures out today showed. The flash CPI estimate fell to -0.1% year-on-year in September from 0.1% in August. Expectations were for inflation to ease to 0%. Core CPI was in-line with estimates, coming in at 0.9% and unchanged from the previous month. As expected, the biggest downward pressure came from energy prices, which declined by 8.9% year-on-year. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices were up by 0.6% year-on-year, holding steady from the [..]

US consumer spending in August beats estimates; dollar reverses initial gains

Posted on September 28, 2015 at 2:21 pm GMT

Personal consumption expenditure in the US rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, maintaining the uninterrupted positive growth recorded since February. The figure compares with an upwardly revised 0.4% growth in July and beats expectations that it would come in at 0.3%. Personal income also continued to grow, rising by 0.3% month-on-month in August, though this was below estimates of 0.4% and down from July’s upwardly revised 0.5%. Spending on durable goods was up by 1.2% but slightly down from July’s [..]

US GDP revised up again in Q2 on stronger consumer spending

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 2:17 pm GMT

US economic growth was revised higher again in the second quarter of the year. The third estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9% on an annualized basis. This comes after the second estimate was revised higher from 2.3% to 3.7% back in August. Forecasts were for GDP growth to stay unrevised. The upward revision was attributed mainly to stronger consumer spending but higher construction also drove growth during the period. Personal consumption [..]

Week Ahead – China PMI and US jobs in focus, plus more from Yellen

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 11:32 am GMT

The US economy is likely to remain in the spotlight for a second week as key data on employment and consumption expenditure is out, and a number of Fed officials are due to speak including Yellen herself. Data from Japan and China will also come into focus as markets watch for signs of a slowdown in the region’s two largest economies. US personal spending and personal income is released along with the PCE price index on Monday. Personal consumption expenditure, [..]

Markets await Yellen speech for clarity but ECB dampens hopes of immediate easing

Posted on September 24, 2015 at 11:27 am GMT

ECB President Mario Draghi on Wednesday dampened expectations that the European Central Bank will announce further stimulus measures anytime soon saying it was “too early to judge”. While Draghi acknowledged the downside risks to Eurozone growth and inflation outlook posed by the recent developments in China and in financial markets, he said more time would be needed to assess their full impact. The slowdown in China and other emerging economies, the recent appreciation of the euro and falling commodity prices [..]

China Manufacturing PMI falls to 6½-year lows while Eurozone PMI eases

Posted on September 23, 2015 at 10:37 am GMT

Flash PMI data out on Wednesday showed manufacturing activity continuing to shrink in China, but the Euro area remains buoyant as output was stable in September. The Caixin flash manufacturing PMI for September came in at 47.0 in September, below consensus estimates of 47.5 and down from 47.3 the previous month. This was the 7th consecutive month of a reading below 50, which indicates contraction, and takes output to a 6½ -year low. Decreases were reported in most areas including [..]

Dollar boosted after Fed policymakers raise prospects of 2015 rate increase

Posted on September 22, 2015 at 10:57 am GMT

After last week’s much-anticipated FOMC meeting struck a surprisingly more dovish tone than markets had expected, Fed officials have since been signalling that the decision to keep rates unchanged was a close call and a rate hike later this year remains a likelihood. The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell to a 3½-week low following the FOMC statement last Thursday. The statement cited the downward pressure on inflation in the [..]

Tsipras wins Greek election; tough reform decisions ahead

Posted on September 21, 2015 at 11:40 am GMT

Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party won the most seats in Sunday’s Greek election, gaining a 35.5% share of the vote. The New Democracy party, which was running neck-and-neck with Syriza in the polls at the end of last week, won 28.1% share of the vote. Snap elections were called after Tsipras suffered large defections in his own party in protest of the reform measures agreed in the latest bailout. Speaking to supporters after the results, Tsipras said he felt ‘vindicated’ and [..]

Week Ahead – Focus will be on Eurozone and China PMIs, Greece elections and Draghi

Posted on September 18, 2015 at 12:01 pm GMT

After a busy week, the following week will be relatively quieter in terms of data, which will give a chance for markets to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates unchanged. The first event markets may choose to look at will be the elections in Greece which will be held this Sunday. Opinion polls show the Syriza party and Conservative New Democracy party are neck and neck. The euro will be in focus although the election results will [..]

Dollar drops on dovish Fed, rates kept unchanged

Posted on September 17, 2015 at 7:27 pm GMT

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at record lows amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy and stubbornly low interest rates in the US. The Fed statement was quite dovish as it lowered its long-term outlook for the US economy. Its forecasts for GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 were downgraded, while the Fed’s Funds Rate forecasts were also lowered to 3.5% compared to 3.75% at the previous policy meeting. Despite a resilient US recovery, the Federal Reserve Open [..]

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