Forex Previews

US retail sales miss estimates sending dollar lower

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 2:14 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States remained near stagnant for the second straight month in September as consumers appear to be cautious about their spending plans despite lower gasoline prices. Total retail sales rose by just 0.1% month-on-month in September and were up 2.4% from a year ago. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to rise by 0.2% after not recording any growth in the previous month, revised figures showed today. When excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales fell [..]

UK unemployment falls but wage growth softer-than-expected

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 10:02 am GMT

UK employment data was mixed today as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell but average earnings disappointed. The ILO measure of unemployment dropped to a 7-year low of 5.4% in August from 5.5% the prior month. Analysts had forecast for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.5%. However, the jobless claims count, which is one month ahead of the ILO measure, rose by 4,600 in September against estimates of a rise of 1,000. Total employment in the economy continued to [..]

UK dips back into deflation in September; pound slumps

Posted on October 13, 2015 at 11:07 am GMT

UK inflation slipped back into negative territory in September, as the 12-month CPI fell to -0.1% from 0.0% the prior month. Consensus estimates were for CPI to stay unchanged. The month-on-month rate also fell by 0.1%. The core rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was unchanged at 1.0% year-on-year, against expectations that it would pick up to 1.1%. The biggest contributor to the change in the 12-month rate was a smaller-than-expected rise in the price of clothing and [..]

Week Ahead – Inflation data to come in focus but China trade data also eyed

Posted on October 9, 2015 at 12:12 pm GMT

Inflation data will be the dominant data theme in the coming week as CPI figures are published for the United States, United Kingdom, China and the Eurozone. Industrial production will also come into focus as data is due from the US, Japan and the Eurozone, as well as Chinese trade data. The start of the week is expected to be fairly quiet though as Japan, Canada and the US markets are closed for national holidays. After this week’s Bank of [..]

Pound gives up gains after Bank of England lowers near-term inflation outlook

Posted on October 8, 2015 at 1:48 pm GMT

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today as expected at the end of its October meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold, with one member (Ian McCafferty) voting to raise rates by 0.25%. The Bank maintained its forecast that the UK economy would expand by 0.6% in the third quarter but pointed to weaker growth globally in the second half of the year. It acknowledged there was uncertainty on how [..]

IFM lowers global growth forecast on emerging market worries

Posted on October 7, 2015 at 2:55 pm GMT

The IMF has downgraded its growth outlook for the world economy with improved growth in advanced economies offset by weaker growth in developing economies. The forecast for world growth for 2015 has been revised down to 3.1% from 3.3% in July’s forecast. This is slower than 2014’s 3.4% but it is expected to pick up to 3.6% in 2016. Economic growth in emerging markets and in developing economies is forecast to slow to 4.0% in 2015, making it the 5th [..]

Kuroda gives little clues on further stimulus as BoJ keeps policy on hold

Posted on October 7, 2015 at 10:33 am GMT

The Bank of Japan delivered no surprises when it announced to maintain monetary policy at current levels at the end of its two-day meeting today. A recent worsening outlook on the world economy and a slowdown in Japan’s largest trading partner, China, had led to some analysts to think that the BoJ would ease policy. But in the statement that followed the decision, the Bank sounded confident that they would be able to achieve their 2% target. While the Bank [..]

Aussie moves higher after RBA maintains rates at 2%

Posted on October 6, 2015 at 10:04 am GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 2.00% for the fifth month today following its October meeting. The decision was widely expected but a surprise rate cut of 0.25% had not been ruled out given the weakening growth outlook for Australia’s largest trading partner, China. In its statement, which was very similar to the September statement, the RBA noted that “some further softening conditions in China and east Asia” and lower commodity prices had led to [..]

Pound falls after soft services PMI; Eurozone PMI revised lower

Posted on October 5, 2015 at 11:53 am GMT

Activity in the UK’s services sector slowed to the lowest level since April 2013, with the Markit/CIPS services PMI dropping to 53.3 in September from August’s 55.6. The reading was sharply below estimates of 56.0, raising fears that the recent slowdown in global growth is spreading beyond the manufacturing and industrial sectors. There was a marked slowdown in the rate of growth for new business, which hit a 29-month low and future business expectations also fell, dropping to a 13-month [..]

Week Ahead – Services PMI and central bank meetings from UK, Japan and Australia in focus

Posted on October 2, 2015 at 2:48 pm GMT

The week ahead see some important data releases and central bank meetings. Monday begins with important PMI data out of the Eurozone and the UK. The final estimate of the Services PMI for the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged at 54.0 in September. Meanwhile, the UK services PMI is expected to be revised to 56.0 from a prior estimate of 55.6 for the month of September. The UK will be in focus on Thursday when the Bank of England [..]

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