Forex Previews

UK unemployment falls to 5.3% but earnings growth eases

Posted on November 11, 2015 at 11:30 am GMT

Unemployment in Britain fell to a near 7½-year low in the three months to September, figures out today showed. The ILO measure of unemployment fell to 5.3% in the three months to September from 5.4% in the previous three months. This was the lowest since May 2008 and below estimates that it would stay unchanged. However, the tightening labor market has yet to cause a major squeeze on pay as earnings growth unexpectedly slowed in September. Average earnings was the [..]

Australian dollar unmoved by China CPI and business confidence data

Posted on November 10, 2015 at 11:20 am GMT

The Australian dollar shrugged off weak Chinese CPI data and mixed business confidence survey as the prospects of a Fed rate rise in December appeared to weigh more heavily on the currency. Inflation in China fell by a bigger margin than expected in October, dropping to 1.3% from 1.6%, against expectations that it would fall to 1.5%. The weak data is a sign of ongoing deflationary pressures in the Chinese economy as industrial overcapacity, weak global demand and falling commodity [..]

Chinese October trade data disappoint, add to case for stimulus

Posted on November 10, 2015 at 9:21 am GMT

Chinese October trade numbers, out on Sunday, were disappointing for those that expected that Chinese growth should be picking up. In fact, there was disappointing news both regarding domestic as well as external demand. Analysts were expecting exports to fall by 3% year-on-year (compared to the previous month’s 3.7% drop), whereas imports were anticipated to be 16% lower compared to the previous month’s big 20.4% reduction. In fact, the drop in exports was a more severe 6.9% and the reduction [..]

Strong US NFP strengthens case for December hike; dollar surges to 7-month high

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 3:09 pm GMT

Global currencies plummeted against the US dollar on Friday after nonfarm payrolls rose much more than expected, beating even the highest estimates. Nonfarm payrolls in the United States jumped by 134k in October to 271k – a 10-month high, and was sharply above estimates of 180k. September’s figure was revised down to 137k from 142k, confirming the relative soft patch in August and September. The unemployment rate slipped to 5.0% – the lowest since April 2008. Expectations were for the [..]

Week Ahead – China data and Eurozone Q3 GDP to be the main focus

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 1:11 pm GMT

Central banks will take a backseat next week as attention turns to China for the latest economic indicators out of the country. Trade data, retail sales and industrial production figures will be some of the data released in China next week. Third quarter GDP data out of the Eurozone will also be closely watched as the European Central Bank ponders whether to provide additional monetary stimulus when it meets next month. Starting the week on Sunday will be the latest [..]

Bank of England dampens expectations of early rate rise; pound slumps

Posted on November 5, 2015 at 3:27 pm GMT

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) sounded more downbeat in its latest quarterly assessment of growth and inflation. As expected the MPC kept interest rates and its asset purchase size unchanged. However, many analysts were expecting that at least one other committee member would join Ian McCafferty in voting for a 0.25% rate hike in today’s meeting. Instead, the voting pattern was unchanged as in the previous three meetings at 8-1. In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank [..]

ADP employment report points to rebound in October NFP; trade deficit shrinks in September

Posted on November 4, 2015 at 3:15 pm GMT

The ADP national employment report pointed to another strong month for US jobs in October. The latest ADP employment change reading came in at 182,000 in October, slightly above estimates of 180,000. The figure was weaker than the 190,000 new jobs added in September, which was revised down from initial estimates of 200,000. Employment rose in all sectors during the last month except for manufacturing, indicating the sector continues to struggle from weak exports. The biggest jobs gains were in [..]

UK services PMI bounces back in October; Services activity also strong in Eurozone and China

Posted on November 4, 2015 at 11:35 am GMT

Activity in the UK’s services sector bounced back in October from the 2-year low it hit in September. It was the first time in four months that activity increased but remains below levels seen since the second half of 2013. The Markit Services PMI rose sharply to 54.9 in October from 53.3 in September, which was the lowest since May 2013. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 54.5. Despite the strong rise, the rate of new business growth did [..]

Australian dollar firms after RBA stands pat despite easing bias

Posted on November 3, 2015 at 10:14 am GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at its November meeting on Tuesday. The decision was widely expected by economists as the domestic economy has remained resilient in the face of ongoing slowdown in China, and the weaker Australian dollar has helped offset some of the impact of falling commodity prices. Interest rates have now been kept at 2.0% since the May meeting when rates were last cut. It followed another cut in February, bringing the [..]

Turkish lira rallies after Erdogan’s AKP win in snap elections

Posted on November 2, 2015 at 2:57 pm GMT

The Turkish lira rallied on Monday to the highest level since August 11 after President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK party won a majority in Sunday’s elections, gaining 49.4% of the votes. Snap elections were called in August after the Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu failed to form a coalition with the opposition parties, MHP and CHP. The AK party lost its majority that it has enjoyed since 2002 in the June elections. The loss of the AKP’s majority had raised hopes for [..]

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