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Week Ahead – Eurozone PMI, US and UK 2nd estimate of GDP and Japan inflation to be watched

Posted on November 20, 2015 at 12:55 pm GMT

The key indicators next week will be the flash November PMI readings for the Eurozone and second estimates of third quarter GDP figures for the United States and the United Kingdom. But CPI and household spending data from Japan will also be closely watched. The flash November PMI data for the Eurozone will start the week on Monday. The manufacturing and services PMI are released for Germany, France and the euro area as a whole. Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone [..]

BoJ ignores weak data and leaves monetary policy unchanged

Posted on November 19, 2015 at 11:39 am GMT

The Bank of Japan chose not to change course on monetary policy on Thursday and kept interest rates and the size of its asset purchases unchanged. The decision comes even as data out today showed annual exports growth in Japan turned negative for the first time in over a year. In the accompanying statement released with the decision announcement, the Bank appeared satisfied that the Japanese economy is continuing its moderate recovery despite a noticeable impact on exports and industrial [..]

Paris attacks unlikely to derail Eurozone recovery but may dent confidence, weigh on ECB policy

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 12:16 pm GMT

Last Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris, France, which have so far killed 129 people, have cast a shadow on the fragile recovery in the Eurozone. It is worth reminding that third quarter growth in the euro area came in below expectations and the Eurozone economy expanded by a meagre 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The European Central Bank has already been signalling for weeks now that it will review its current stimulus measures at its next policy meeting on December 3 where it [..]

US inflation edges up in October; dollar unmoved

Posted on November 17, 2015 at 3:18 pm GMT

Annual inflation showed signs of picking up in the United States as the 12-month CPI rate increased to 0.2% in October from 0.0% in September. The figure was slightly stronger than the 0.1% rate expected by economists. On a month-on-month basis, prices were up 0.2% in October – the first rise in three months, which was in line with estimates. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy items, was unchanged at 1.9% on a yearly basis, while the month-on-month rate [..]

UK inflation stuck at -0.1% but stronger core rate sends pound higher

Posted on November 17, 2015 at 11:26 am GMT

nflation in the United Kingdom remained in negative territory in October and was largely within estimates, figures out today showed. Annual CPI was unchanged from the previous month at -0.1% in October and in-line with estimates. But core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose to the highest since July to 1.1% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in September and against forecasts that it would stay unchanged. The headline rate of inflation in the UK has been stuck [..]

Japan slips back into recession; adds pressure on BoJ for more stimulus

Posted on November 16, 2015 at 11:39 am GMT

Japan’s economy entered into technical recession in the third quarter of the year as GDP shrank for the second consecutive quarter. GDP growth for the July-September quarter came in at -0.2% compared to the previous quarter, slightly worse than the consensus estimates of -0.1%. However, with second quarter growth revised up from -0.3% to -0.2% q/q and a projected rebound in the fourth quarter, there is little expectation that Japan’s economy is heading back towards a prolonged downturn. The biggest [..]

US retail sales disappoint in October; unlikely to detract Fed in rate decision

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 3:04 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States rose by less than expected in October, posting a modest growth of just 0.1% month-on-month. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to grow by 0.3% m/m. Adding to the feeble data was a downward revision to the previous month’s figure, which was revised down to 0% from 0.1% m/m. On a 12-month basis, retail sales were 1.7% higher. The core retail sales measure, which excludes items such as building materials, motor vehicles and parts, [..]

Week Ahead – US, UK and Eurozone inflation to be eyed; Japan GDP could point to recession

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 12:51 pm GMT

Inflation data will be the main theme of the coming week as October CPI readings are published for the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as the final CPI numbers for the Eurozone. Japanese GDP data will also be closely watched as it could show that Japan slipped into recession in the third quarter of the year. Japan will start the week with GDP data on Monday. The economy is forecast to have contracted for the second consecutive [..]

Draghi downbeat on inflation; euro falls on increased prospects of December move

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 2:50 pm GMT

Expectations of further monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank were heightened again today following ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony to the European Parliament. At the hearing to the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Draghi said that “signs of a sustained turnaround in core inflation have somewhat weakened”. The ECB’s Governing Council will convene on December 3 for its next policy meeting and recent reports have suggested that a consensus is forming with policymakers to cut the deposit rate further [..]

Solid Australian jobs gain lessens chance of RBA rate cut in near term

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 11:05 am GMT

Jobs growth in Australia surged in October, rising by 58,600 and strongly beating expectations of 15,000. This was the biggest gain in 3½ years and took the unemployment rate down to 5.9% from 6.2% in the previous month. There was a 40,000 increase in full-time employment, while part-time employment rose by 18,600. The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1% to 65.0%. The latest data is an indication that the service sector of the economy is generating more jobs than [..]

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