Forex Previews

Pound see-saws on inflation data as CPI turns positive

Posted on December 15, 2015 at 12:42 pm GMT

UK consumer prices rose on an annual basis for the first time in four months, figures out today showed. CPI rose from -0.1% y/y in October to +0.1% y/y in November, in line with consensus estimates. The core rate, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, rose to the highest level since July, climbing from 1.1% to 1.2% y/y in November, and was also within estimates. The biggest drop from the previous month came from transport costs (-0.7%) as [..]

BoJ Tankan survey points to steady confidence but outlook worsens

Posted on December 14, 2015 at 12:37 pm GMT

Sentiment among Japanese businesses held steady in the fourth quarter according to the Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey. However, companies were less optimistic about the future as worries about weakening overseas demand weighed on exporters. Large manufacturers maintained their optimism in the current quarter at similar levels to the previous quarter. The Tankan index for large manufacturers was unchanged at 12 and compares with expectations that the index would fall to 11. Non-manufacturers were also as confident as with [..]

Week Ahead – Fed lift-off could finally arrive; China, Japan and UK also in focus

Posted on December 11, 2015 at 12:44 pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve is expected to take centre stage next week as it meets for its December FOMC meeting and is likely to announce its first rate hike since 2006. However, China, Japan and the UK should not go unnoticed as key economic indicators are released for the respective countries. China will release its latest industrial production and retail sales data on Saturday even before the week has started. Industrial production is forecast to stay unchanged at 5.6% y/y [..]

Swiss National Bank refrains from pushing rates to deeper negative territory

Posted on December 10, 2015 at 11:01 am GMT

At the most recent monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank decided against pushing interest rates even deeper into negative territory. After a policy meeting in Bern on Thursday, the central bank left the interest rate negative at -0.75% on banks’ sight deposits. This was in line with market expectations. The SNB also decided to leave the target range for the three-month Libor unchanged between −1.25% and –0.25%. On 18 December 2014, the SNB decided to impose an interest rate [..]

Chinese yuan weakest since 2011 as economy remains sluggish

Posted on December 9, 2015 at 1:01 pm GMT

Recent data out of China has done little to reassure investors that growth in the economy is picking up. The manufacturing sector, which has been the hardest hit on waning overseas demand, has yet to show solid signs of a turnaround despite some evidence of output bottoming out. The Caixin manufacturing PMI – a key indicator for factory output – has been improving for the past three months, though it remains in negative territory. But the official manufacturing PMI worsened [..]

Japan not in recession after GDP is revised up

Posted on December 8, 2015 at 1:15 pm GMT

Japan’s economy posted positive growth in the third quarter of the year according to the second estimates of GDP growth, cancelling the negative reading of the preliminary estimate. The revised figure means that not only Japan avoided entering technical recession in the third quarter, having contracted by 0.1% q/q in the second quarter, but the upward revision was much stronger than expected. GDP expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and by 1.0% at an annualized rate, beating estimates of 0.1% (annualised) and [..]

Another strong US NFP report clears path for Fed rate hike

Posted on December 4, 2015 at 3:34 pm GMT

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States had another strong showing in November, rising by 211k and beating estimates of 200k. In further support of today’s solid rise, last month’s robust increase was revised up from 271k to 298k. The strong readings clear the way for the Federal Reserve to proceed with its first rate rise since June 2006. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in November, while the labor force participation rate improved slightly to 62.5% from 62.4% in [..]

Week Ahead – Bank of England and RBNZ meet; Japan GDP could get revised to positive growth

Posted on December 4, 2015 at 12:54 pm GMT

Central Bank meetings will continue into next week with the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holding their respective policy meetings. Also to watch out next week are the Chinese trade data and Japanese GDP revision, which could show Japan avoided technical recession in the third quarter. German industrial production data will start the week on Monday. Industrial production is expected to rebound in October, and is forecast to rise by 0.7% m/m after shrinking by [..]

Yellen gives clearest indication to date that rate hike maybe near

Posted on December 3, 2015 at 11:10 am GMT

The Chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen yesterday gave the clearest indication yet that a rise in US dollar interest rates is near. Yellen said she was “looking forward” to the first rate hike, as it would signal that the US economic recovery was strong enough to be able to withstand non-zero interest rates. Delaying the first rate rise further could have negative implications, according to Yellen. The Fed Chair therefore tried to give a positive interpretation of the [..]

Mining exports boost Australian GDP in Q3; aussie extends gains

Posted on December 2, 2015 at 11:07 am GMT

The Australian economy bounced back in the third quarter of the year as mining output jumped by 5.2% after declining in the previous quarter. GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.9% q/q in the July-September period, above estimates of 0.8%. In the second quarter, the economy had stagnated to just 0.2% q/q as the slowdown in China had hurt exports. Compared to the same time last year, GDP was up 2.5% during the quarter. The jump in exports contributed the most [..]

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