Forex Previews

German growth highest since 2014 but may not hold according to ZEW survey

Posted on May 24, 2016 at 11:15 am GMT

Germany’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years in the first three months of the year. GDP growth was confirmed at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter during the January-March period according to the second estimate released today. This represents a marked improvement on the average rate of 0.3% seen in 2015. Growth was led by private consumption and construction investment, which contributed 0.2% each to the GDP growth in the first quarter. Also making a strong contribution was higher government spending [..]

Eurozone PMI disappoints in May; euro tests 1.12 dollars

Posted on May 23, 2016 at 10:02 am GMT

Activity in the euro area slowed slightly to a 16-month low in May according to the flash reading of Markit’s composite PMI. The composite PMI, which comprises both the manufacturing and services sectors, fell slightly to 52.9 in May from 53.0 in April. The figure is below forecasts that it would rise to 53.2. The PMI figures for April and May are pointing to slower growth across the Eurozone in the second quarter of the year so far. At the [..]

Week Ahead – Busy week for PMI and GDP data; Fed speakers also eyed

Posted on May 20, 2016 at 12:55 pm GMT

Preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone will be among the main data releases of the coming week along with second estimate GDP for the first quarter for the UK, the US and Germany, as well as Japanese inflation. The US calendar will be the busiest with housing data and durable goods orders also due. However, upcoming speeches from several Fed officials could attract more attention given the recent strong signals coming from the Fed lately on a possible June/July rate [..]

Fed minutes alert markets to possible June rate hike; dollar charges higher

Posted on May 19, 2016 at 11:43 am GMT

The meeting minutes of the FOMC’s April policy meeting published yesterday delivered a wake-up call to the markets, who had all but priced out a rate hike in June. The minutes gave a more confident assessment than what the markets were anticipating on the likelihood of inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target in the medium term. The Committee also set out a specific set of conditions that if met by June, would form a strong case for a rate [..]

Pound surges as latest Brexit poll puts ‘remain’ on 18 point lead

Posted on May 18, 2016 at 2:25 pm GMT

Support for Britain to stay in the European Union appears to be gathering pace as the fourth poll this week has put the ‘remain’ camp in the lead. According to the latest Ipsos MORI poll out today, 55% of respondents voiced their intention to vote for Britain to stay in the EU, compared to 37% who said they would vote for Britain to leave the EU. This gives the ‘remain’ camp an 18 point lead and follows the 15-point lead [..]

Japan GDP grows more than expected in Q1 but business spending falls

Posted on May 18, 2016 at 10:14 am GMT

Japan’s economy avoided a technical recession in the first quarter by expanding at a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the first three months of the year. After contracting by a downwardly revised 0.4% in the final quarter of 2015, some analysts had feared that the world’s third largest economy would enter its fourth technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth) since emerging out of the financial crisis. However, growth surprised on the upside as it beat expectations [..]

US consumer prices post biggest monthly gains since 2013; dollar mixed

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:10 pm GMT

Consumer prices in the United States posted their biggest month-on-month increase in April since February 2013, adding to the evidence of steadily rising inflationary pressures in the country. CPI in April was up 0.4% from the previous month – the biggest increase in three years and above forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI rose by 1.1% – in line with estimates but up from 0.9% in March. The core rate, which excludes food and energy items, also quickened [..]

Sterling reverses gains after surprise drop in UK inflation

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 10:35 am GMT

Inflation in the UK posted a surprise drop in April as a big decline in air fares dragged the consumer price index lower. Annual CPI rose by 0.3% in the 12 months to April, falling short of expectations that it would stay unchanged at 0.5%. The month-on-month rate also missed estimates, as CPI in April increased by 0.1% from March, instead of 0.3% as forecast. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food and alcoholic beverages, was unchanged on the month, missing [..]

Chinese recovery in doubt after April data disappoints

Posted on May 16, 2016 at 1:10 pm GMT

Economic data released on Saturday raised fresh concerns about China’s path to a sustained recovery as major indicators for April all missed estimates. Following March’s better-than-expected figures that had fuelled optimism that growth in the world’s second largest economy is regaining momentum, there had been growing expectations that the April data would add further support to the view that China’s slowdown is bottoming out. Instead, the latest data suggest the economy is still fragile. Industrial production in April rose by [..]

US retail sales rise the most in a year; dollar jumps higher

Posted on May 13, 2016 at 2:58 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States grew at the fastest rate since March 2015 as consumer spending appeared to be rebounding in April following a slowdown in the first quarter. Monthly retail sales rose sharply by 1.3% in April versus estimates of a 0.8% increase and a rebound from the previous month’s 0.3% decline. On a 12-month basis, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% in April from 1.7% in March. Excluding volatile items such as motor vehicles and parts, retail sales [..]

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