Forex Previews

ECB raises growth and inflation outlook but says risks remain on downside

Posted on June 2, 2016 at 3:05 pm GMT

The European Central Bank met in Vienna today for its latest monetary policy meeting and as expected, kept interest rates and its asset purchase program unchanged. There were more details however on some of the policies announced in March but not yet implemented. The purchase of corporate bonds (corporate sector purchase program) will commence on June 8, while the new series of the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) will begin on June 22. The TLTRO program is aimed at boosting [..]

Strong Australian economy casts doubt over further RBA easing

Posted on June 1, 2016 at 11:20 am GMT

Australia’s economy continued to power ahead in the first quarter of the year as GDP expanded by 1.1% over the quarter – the highest in four years. The figure beat expectations of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter growth and is up from 0.7% in the previous quarter, which itself was revised up from an earlier estimate of 0.6%. On a year-on-year basis, growth stood 3.1% higher than the first quarter in 2015. The main drivers of growth in the first three months of [..]

US consumer spending rises the most since 2009 but dollar little changed

Posted on May 31, 2016 at 2:07 pm GMT

Personal spending in the United States rose at the fastest pace in nearly seven years in April as consumer spending bounced back after a weak first quarter. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 1% month-on-month in April, beating estimates of 0.7%. This was the highest since August 2009 and compares with a downwardly revised rate of 0% in March. Personal income continued to grow at a steady rate in April, maintaining the 0.4% month-on-month rate of the prior month. The figure [..]

Eurozone inflation slightly up but stuck below zero

Posted on May 31, 2016 at 11:22 am GMT

Consumer prices in the 19-country euro area ticked up in May as the decline in energy prices eased slightly. The flash estimate of headline CPI rose to -0.1% year-on-year in May, from -0.2% in April, in line with consensus forecasts. This was the second straight month of declining prices across the Eurozone, and the fourth that prices have not increased. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, also moved higher, rising from 0.7% in April to 0.8% y/y in [..]

Yellen reinforces market expectations of summer rate hike

Posted on May 30, 2016 at 11:56 am GMT

Expectations that the US Federal Reserve could be readying to raise interest rates as early as June gathered pace over the weekend following hawkish remarks from its head. Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Friday added to the growing number of hawkish voices coming out of the Fed in recent weeks, reinforcing market expectations that US rates are likely to go up in the summer. Speaking at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University, Yellen said during a panel [..]

US growth revised higher in first quarter but still weak

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 3:11 pm GMT

Economic growth in the United States was revised higher in the first quarter but was still the lowest in a year. GDP growth was revised up from the advance estimate of 0.5% on an annualized basis to 0.8% in the second estimate. The figure falls just short of forecasts of 0.9% and compares with a rate of 1.4% in the previous quarter. On a year-on-year basis, growth was unchanged at 2.0% during the first three months of the year. The [..]

Week Ahead – Key week for dollar with payrolls in focus; ECB meeting also eyed

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 1:20 pm GMT

It will be a busy week for US data and the dollar in the next seven days as a number of key indicators are expected including the all-important NFP report at the end of the week. The euro will also come into focus as the European Central Bank holds its scheduled policy meeting, while Chinese PMI and Australian and Canadian GDP numbers will also be important. Japanese household spending likely to fall back in April Japanese data will start the [..]

Dollar reverses gains after mixed US durable goods orders

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 2:41 pm GMT

Durable goods orders sent mixed messages about the US economy today as a jump in total new orders in April was overshadowed by a drop in the core measure. Total new orders for manufactured goods meant to last for at least three years jumped by 3.4% month-on-month in April, beating estimates of 0.5%. The figure is even stronger when looking against the prior month’s reading which was revised up from 1.3% to 1.9%. However, the solid headline figure was accompanied [..]

UK Q1 GDP unrevised but exports and investment slump; pound pulls back

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 10:45 am GMT

UK growth was left unrevised in the second estimate for first quarter GDP but a more detailed breakdown pointed to some worrying developments for the British economy. GDP growth was confirmed at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in today’s second reading, in line with estimates. But the annual rate was revised down slightly from 2.1% to 2.0%, missing forecasts that it would stay unrevised. As expected, growth during the first three months of the year was driven by household consumption, which rose by [..]

Bank of Canada keeps rates on hold but expects GDP hit from wildfires

Posted on May 25, 2016 at 2:57 pm GMT

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate target unchanged at 0.5% today at its May policy meeting in a widely expected move. The Bank has held rates at 0.5% since July 2015 even though Canada’s economy has been struggling to adjust to the collapse in oil prices. The Canadian economy, which was among the few advanced economies to escape the global financial crisis of 2008 mostly unscathed, has been hit hard by the plunge in crude oil prices. The [..]

Legal disclaimer: The material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments. XM accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences resulting in it. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The research and analysis does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.

It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research, and as such it is considered to be marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of the publication of our research, we do not seek to take advantage of it before we provide it to our clients. We aim to establish, maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. We operate a policy of independence, which requires our employees to act in our clients’ best interests and to disregard any conflicts of interest in providing our services.

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losing all of your invested capital, so please make sure that you fully understand the risks involved.