Forex Previews

Pound pressured by downwardly revised UK manufacturing PMI but Eurozone revised up

Posted on August 1, 2016 at 11:16 am GMT

The post-Brexit gloom appears to have had a bigger impact on the UK’s manufacturing sector than initially thought, according to data out today. The final reading of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI was revised down from 49.1 in the one-off flash estimate to 48.2 in July – the lowest since February 2013. Expectations were for the final reading to remain unrevised and compares with a figure of 52.1 in June. This was the steepest deterioration in manufacturing activity since October 2012. [..]

Week Ahead – Pressure on BoE to cut rates; PMI data and US NFP also in focus

Posted on July 29, 2016 at 2:45 pm GMT

The Bank of England meets next week in a highly anticipated meeting where the Bank is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2009. The Reserve Bank of Australia also meets and will likely ease policy too. The latest PMI survey data for the Eurozone, UK, US and China will also be watched as investors look for signs of any negative impact on growth from Brexit, while the July non-farm payrolls report out of the US will for [..]

BoJ refrains from radical measures; eases only modestly but yen soars

Posted on July 29, 2016 at 10:11 am GMT

The Bank of Japan underwhelmed financial markets today after it failed to meet expectations of a large expansion of its stimulus program. Following the announcement this week by the Japanese government of a 28 trillion yen fiscal stimulus package, expectations had been running high that the central bank would follow suit with a similar large stimulus of its own. However, the Bank of Japan decided to make only modest changes to its existing policy as it opted instead to review [..]

Eurozone economic sentiment rises unexpectedly in July

Posted on July 28, 2016 at 11:08 am GMT

Economic sentiment across the Eurozone improved in July, defying expectations that it would suffer a drop as a result of the uncertainty created by Britain’s decision to leave the EU. According to the European Commission’s survey, the economic sentiment indicator for the euro area rose from 104.4 in June to 104.6 in July, beating estimates that it would decline to 103.7. Among the region’s largest economies, Italy saw the biggest improvement during the month, while France and Spain saw a [..]

Fed keeps policy unchanged but sees diminished risks

Posted on July 27, 2016 at 7:46 pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve kept monetary policy unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting today but it left the door open for a possible rate rise this year as it described the near-term risks to the economic outlook as having “diminished”. Concerns over a potential ‘leave’ vote in the UK’s EU referendum and slowing jobs growth in the US in May prevented the Fed from taking action in June. However, those worries have now mostly abated as the labor [..]

Australian inflation falls to 17-year low but August rate cut looking less decisive

Posted on July 27, 2016 at 12:22 pm GMT

The rate of inflation in Australia fell to the lowest since 1999 in the second quarter, figures out today showed, as price pressures in the country continued to ease. CPI declined to 1.0% year-on-year in the three months to June, falling slightly short of estimates of 1.1% and down from 1.3% in the previous three months. The quarter-on-quarter rate met expectations though as CPI rose by 0.4% between the first and second quarters, which more than reverses the 0.2% drop [..]

Crude oil under renewed downside pressure as oversupply worries resurface

Posted on July 26, 2016 at 2:25 pm GMT

Crude oil prices have come under increased selling pressure in recent days as worries about the oversupply in the market have resurfaced. Despite a series of disruptions to supply in recent months which pushed prices to fresh yearly highs in June, concerns that demand has not picked up as fast as had been expected have led analysts to re-assess their outlook. US crude fell to its lowest since 2003 back in February this year, touching a low of $26.05 a [..]

German Ifo points to limited Brexit impact; euro spurred higher

Posted on July 25, 2016 at 10:13 am GMT

The Ifo business survey, which measures sentiment across Germany, beat expectations in July as business confidence deteriorated only slightly in the aftermath of the UK vote to leave the EU. The business climate index fell marginally from 108.7 in June to 108.3 in July, confounding expectations that it would drop to 107.5. The uncertainty created by Brexit appears to have cast some cloud over the future outlook as the Ifo expectations index dipped from 103.1 to 102.2 in July. But [..]

Week Ahead – Hopes high for BoJ stimulus; FOMC and Q2 GDP also eyed

Posted on July 22, 2016 at 1:48 pm GMT

Expectations have been mounting that the Bank of Japan will launch fresh stimulus measures next week but the Fed will likely stay put. It will also be busy on the data front for Japan and the US, while second quarter GDP data for the Eurozone, the UK and the US should also attract attention. Will the BoJ pull the trigger? Starting the week on Monday, trade figures for Japan are expected to show a further deterioration in exports in June. [..]

Pound firms on jobless dip and a not-so-gloomy BoE survey

Posted on July 20, 2016 at 1:06 pm GMT

The British pound received a boost from a surprise dip in Britain’s unemployment rate in May, while a not-so-gloomy post-Brexit survey from the Bank of England further supported the currency. Stronger-than-expected jobless data helped sterling climb back above 1.31 dollars in European trading after dropping as low as 1.3064 dollars earlier in the day. A downward revision by the IMF to the UK’s growth forecasts had been weighing on the pound since yesterday, but there was a double dose of [..]

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