Forex Previews

Week Ahead – Vaccine hopes torment yen, all eyes on Congress

Posted on August 14, 2020 at 11:48 am GMT

It’s a relatively quiet week, with the main highlights being the Eurozone’s PMIs and the latest FOMC minutes. In the political arena, American and Chinese negotiators will meet over the weekend to review the ‘phase one’ trade deal. For markets though, the most crucial drivers will be whether US lawmakers can break the deadlock in the stimulus negotiations, and whether enthusiasm around a vaccine will keep pushing global yields higher, crushing the yen. Will markets have to scream first, before [..]

Australian jobs data: Statistical shenanigans – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 12, 2020 at 2:23 pm GMT

Australia’s employment data for July will hit the markets at 01:30 GMT Thursday. Forecasts point to a spike in the unemployment rate, though that’s likely owed to more people coming back to the labor market, not a setback in the economy. As for the aussie, its broader direction will depend mostly on global risk sentiment and vaccine news. Yet, given the RBA’s yield curve control strategy, encouraging vaccine headlines might not boost the aussie across the board – only against [..]

US retail sales may dim hopes of a quick recovery – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 12, 2020 at 12:55 pm GMT

US retail sales for the month of July will hit the markets on Friday at 12:30 GMT and expectations are for a sharp slowdown from June’s remarkable growth. While a weaker data set is highly expected, traders may pay attention to the size of damage that the virus caused on consumption. The outcome may provide some policy direction, driving the dollar accordingly. US retail sales to sharply decelerate in July Following May’s historical monthly expansion of 18.2%, US retail sales [..]

RBNZ meeting: Shooting the kiwi down – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 10, 2020 at 3:56 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will conclude its policy meeting at 02:00 GMT Wednesday. Domestic economic data have held up better than expected, but storm clouds are gathering and the RBNZ may take proactive action. Policymakers could expand their QE programme, and lay out the conditions for using more unorthodox tools. At a minimum, the RBNZ will maintain a very dovish tone, and if it doesn’t shoot down the kiwi through more action, it may still do so through [..]

UK to declare worst recession in a century; jobless rate to rebound – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 10, 2020 at 2:19 pm GMT

Markets will place an extra weight on employment readings and GDP growth figures out of the UK on Tuesday (08:30 GMT) and Wednesday (06:00 GMT) respectively after the Bank of England showed concerns of a rising unemployment rate at its previous week’s policy meeting but reiterated that the economy has a more rapid recovery than it initially projected. With the pound having erased some of its gains on the back of a stronger dollar on Friday, the data should significanty [..]

Week Ahead – Dollar eyes US stimulus talks, retail sales; UK GDP and RBNZ in focus too

Posted on August 7, 2020 at 1:10 pm GMT

Congressional talks in the United States on a new virus relief package will dominate the market headlines yet again in the coming week as the durability of the latest risk-on episode rests on a deal being reached. But investors will also be keeping a close watch on US retail sales figures to gauge how well consumption is holding up amid renewed virus restrictions. Progress on the recovery will be preoccupying the pound too as UK GDP numbers for Q2 and [..]

Canada to add more jobs in July as recovery gathers pace, loonie strengthens – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 1:44 pm GMT

The Canadian economy is expected to have added more jobs in July as the phased easing of the lockdown across the country continues to boost employment. The jobs report, due on Friday at 12:30 GMT, could give the Canadian dollar a further helping hand in erasing its year-to-date losses versus the tumbling greenback. But with troubles brewing across the border in the United States, can Canada’s recovery stand on its own two feet? Jobs bounce set to continue It’s so [..]

Nonfarm payrolls: Great expectations? – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 12:45 pm GMT

The US employment report will hit the markets at 12:30 GMT Friday, and forecasts suggest the American economy added another 1.6 million jobs in July. Why is the consensus so optimistic even though the US recovery is losing steam? The answer lies with the period which the data were collected in. Overall, the risks seem tilted towards a disappointing, but positive NFP print. As for the dollar, whether the recent downfall continues will depend mostly on what Congress does. Too [..]

Bank of England to hold rates and QE, may clarify stance on negative rates – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 1:59 pm GMT

The Bank of England is getting ready for ‘Super Thursday’ this week when it inundates investors with its meeting minutes, the latest outlook report and a press conference on top of its policy decision. But having already beefed up its quantitative easing (QE) programme at the last meeting in June, the Bank is not expected to make any adjustments to its policy when it announces its decision at 11:00 GMT. Instead, Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference at 11:30 GMT will [..]

Jump in New Zealand unemployment may curb soaring kiwi – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 6:19 am GMT

New Zealand’s jobless rate is expected to have surged to a 7-year high in the June quarter as employers struggle to maintain staff numbers in the face of the global pandemic. The data, due on Wednesday (Tuesday, 22:45 GMT), might not pose an obvious threat to the local dollar’s 4-month-long uptrend versus its US rival as New Zealand has so far avoided being hit by a second wave of COVID-19 infections. However, the rocky recovery in the country’s main trading [..]

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