Forex Previews

Week ahead – US employment report to kick off the New Year

Posted on December 28, 2018 at 1:20 pm GMT

After a particularly turbulent week that lacked fresh catalysts but not wild price swings, traders will now turn their sights back to more familiar themes, such as economic data releases, and most notably the US jobs report for December. That doesn’t mean everything is back to normal though, as liquidity will likely remain thin, which implies that any piece of news could have a disproportionally large market impact. Further deterioration in China’s manufacturing PMI expected The week will commence with [..]

Japanese industrial output and retail sales to weaken in November as yen enjoys revived safe-haven status – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 24, 2018 at 11:19 am GMT

Economic data out of Japan – the only major releases of the week – are anticipated to point to further trouble for the Japanese economy on Friday (local time). Like much of the rest of the world, growth in Japan slowed down considerably in 2018, with GDP contracting in the first and third quarters. While a modest recovery is expected in the fourth quarter, unemployment, industrial output and retail sales figures will likely point to more weakness ahead. The jobs [..]

Week Ahead – Markets to enter Christmas lull; risk of volatility in thin trade

Posted on December 21, 2018 at 12:55 pm GMT

As the holiday period begins, markets will go into quiet mode for the next two weeks with little on the economic agenda to keep traders at their desks. However, with the market sentiment being stuck in risk-off mood, there is a threat that thin trading conditions could lead to some unexpected volatility, particularly from any headlines that would fuel concerns of a major global economic downturn in 2019. Japanese data to dominate The Japanese market will be the busiest next [..]

Core PCE inflation last major insight into US economy before the year-end– Forex News Preview

Posted on December 20, 2018 at 11:01 am GMT

The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will be the highlight of the US economic calendar on Friday and the last important release out of the US before the year-end as investors gather evidence that could shape potential tweaks in the Fed’s rate hiking path in the near future. Consensus is for the gauge to have gained some steam in November, but stronger improvement might be needed to guarantee at least one more rate rise next year. On Friday at 1330 GMT, November’s figure [..]

Aussie looks to employment report for boost after GDP disappointment – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 19, 2018 at 4:46 pm GMT

Employment data out of Australia will be watched on Thursday at 00:30 GMT as the Australian dollar struggles to regain positive momentum following the poor GDP readings for the third quarter. The aussie has been on the backfoot following the disappointing growth figures released earlier in December and its slide has only been halted due to the US dollar losing some of its shine. After a patchy start to the year, employment growth picked up some steam in the summer. [..]

New Zealand GDP to slow in Q3 but things looking up for kiwi – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 19, 2018 at 2:32 pm GMT

New Zealand will be the last of the major advanced countries to publish its third quarter GDP estimates on Thursday local time (Wednesday, 21:45 GMT). The economy is expected to have cooled somewhat from the previous quarter. However, the local dollar has been in a bullish mood since October and could extend its latest upswing as business confidence recovers and the US dollar falls out of favour with investors. After growing by a robust 1.0% in the second quarter, New [..]

BoJ: still no normalization in sight, risk flows crucial for yen – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 19, 2018 at 10:15 am GMT

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will conclude its latest policy meeting during the Asian session on Thursday. No change in its massive stimulus program is expected, and considering that inflation remains subdued, any hints of future normalization are unlikely too. Hence, the yen probably won’t respond much, and may instead continue to be driven mainly by shifts in global risk appetite. Under its current framework of “QQE with yield-curve control”, the BoJ has pledged to keep the yields on longer-dated [..]

Brexit strain to take shine off UK CPI and retail sales data, as well as BoE meeting – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 18, 2018 at 4:01 pm GMT

A raft economic data are due out of the UK this week ahead of a Bank of England policy decision. Inflation and retail sales figures will be released at 09:30 GMT on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, to be followed by the BoE announcement at 12:00 GMT on Thursday. But with the UK Parliament in deadlock over Brexit and the European Union refusing to give further ground on the Irish backstop issue, pound traders will likely stay on the sidelines until [..]

Loonie declines awaiting inflation and retail sales – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 18, 2018 at 1:01 pm GMT

Canadian inflation figures will hit the markets on Wednesday at 1330 GMT as well as retail sales and GDP numbers that are scheduled to be released on Friday at 1330 GMT. On December 5, the Bank of Canada (BOC) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, after raising it by 25bps in the preceding meeting as was widely expected. It remained the highest rate since December 2008. Policymakers mentioned that more interest rate hikes will be needed to keep inflation into a range of 2% target [..]

Will the Fed be less dovish than markets expect? – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 18, 2018 at 1:00 pm GMT

The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, at 1900 GMT. Markets seem positioned for a “dovish hike”, where the Fed raises rates but lowers its rate-path forecasts and strikes a cautious tone. However, considering just how dovish market pricing for 2019 is, the risks surrounding the dollar seem to be asymmetric, and skewed to the upside. In the past few weeks, investors have meaningfully pared back their bets for Fed rate hikes in 2019. Yet, the implied probability [..]

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