Forex Previews

Japan to return to growth in Q4 but global slowdown to weigh on outlook – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 13, 2019 at 3:08 pm GMT

Japan will post fourth quarter GDP numbers on Thursday (23:50 GMT, Wednesday) with growth expected to have partially recovered from a third quarter contraction. But with global growth decelerating at a worrying rate and the sales tax in Japan due to rise in October, a modest rebound at the end of 2018 is unlikely to diminish the risk of more negative quarters to come in 2019. A rebound in business spending and private consumption is expected to have lifted [..]

Aussie looks to key Chinese data and conclusion of trade talks – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 13, 2019 at 2:56 pm GMT

China’s trade and inflation figures for January will hit the markets early on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Forecasts point to further weakness, which may spell some trouble for “China-sensitive” currencies like the aussie. That said, the far bigger driver for market sentiment will likely be any updates in the US-China trade talks, the latest round of which concludes in Beijing on Friday. The Chinese economy continued to slow at the beginning of 2019, if the forecasts for the upcoming indicators [..]

US inflation and delayed retail sales may struggle to distract dollar from trade talks – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 12, 2019 at 4:38 pm GMT

While another round of high-level trade talks between the US and China will be keeping investors on edge this week, dollar traders might seek some distraction from monthly inflation, retail sales and industrial output data out of the US over the next few days. Consumer price inflation for January is up first on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT, and Thursday will see the release of the December retail sales report, also at 13:30 GMT, which was delayed due to the government [..]

Germany to avoid recession in Q4 but risks still lurk – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 12, 2019 at 4:20 pm GMT

The euro has been in a disadvantageous position over the past two weeks as Italy tipped into recession at the end of last year, while the ongoing Brexit drama continued to restrict buying interest for the currency. Concerns have been also growing in Germany, where the third quarter saw the biggest EU economy contracting for the first time after four years, with investors anxiously waiting fresh GDP growth readings out of the country on Thursday to determine whether the economy [..]

RBNZ may appear dovish, but not enough to satisfy the bears – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 12, 2019 at 3:19 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will conclude its policy meeting on Wednesday, at 0100 GMT. Governor Orr will hold a press conference an hour later. In the wake of some disappointing employment data, traders have sharply ramped up their bets for a rate cut this year. While the central bank may indeed cut rates later in 2019, it’s unlikely to clearly signal such a move this early, which generates an upside risk for the kiwi on the decision. [..]

UK inflation to dip below 2%; January retail sales eyed after weak GDP – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 12, 2019 at 11:12 am GMT

After the disappointing GDP numbers for the fourth quarter, the pound is unlikely to find much support from the next set of data to be published in the UK this week. January inflation and retail sales readings are due on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, at 09:30 GMT. Both reports are expected to point to further weakness in the British economy, as a combination of lingering Brexit uncertainty and global growth slowdown take their toll. Prices pressures in the UK have [..]

UK GDP growth to decelerate in Q4 – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 8, 2019 at 2:48 pm GMT

The Bank of England joined its dovish counterparts on Thursday after leaving interest rates steady as expected amid mounting fears that Brexit coinciding with a global economic slowdown could further sink British markets. Of more importance, policymakers surprisingly decided to cut growth forecasts to 1.2% for 2019 which is the lowest since financial crisis, turning the spotlight to Monday’s preliminary GDP figures for the fourth quarter, with markets predicting a weaker start for the year. At 0930 GMT, the Office for National Statistics [..]

Week Ahead – Japanese and UK Q4 GDP in focus; Kiwi readies for dovish noises from RBNZ

Posted on February 8, 2019 at 2:46 pm GMT

Japan and the United Kingdom will be next to publish economic growth numbers for the final quarter of 2018, while the Eurozone will release its second GDP estimate for the period. Inflation data out of the US and the UK will also be watched. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be among the last of the major central banks to hold its first monetary policy meeting of 2019. The Bank is unlikely to buck the trend and will probably [..]

BoE to strike cautious tone as Brexit uncertainty reigns – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 6, 2019 at 2:51 pm GMT

The BoE is widely expected to keep policy unchanged via a unanimous 9-0 vote on Thursday, at 1200 GMT. Focus will be on the updated economic forecasts, the likelihood for rate hikes – or cuts – this year, and Governor’s Carney’s remarks. The heightened uncertainty around Brexit coupled with a slowdown in UK growth suggest little scope for any hawkish bits, with Carney & Co. instead likely to adopt a more cautious tone. With money markets still assigning a 60% [..]

Canada to add fewer jobs numbers in January – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 6, 2019 at 1:11 pm GMT

Canada is delivering its first employment report for this year on Friday at 1330 GMT but according to analysts the results may appear dull once again, likely leading to the conclusion that rate hike plans should remain on hold for now until further notice. In December, employment growth was muted at 9.3k, marking an average yearly increase of 163,000 for 2018, the lowest expansion recorded in three years, while the unemployment rate remained at the multi-decade low of 5.6%. In January, the economy is said to have [..]

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