Commodities

Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures aim for more recovery but the way ahead could be rocky

Posted on October 6, 2020 at 10:12 am GMT

Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

WTI oil futures increased their recovery odds after advancing above the middle Bollinger band in the four-hour chart on Monday which is also the 20-period simple moving average (SMA).

However, there are still some barriers that bulls need to remove to extend the rally although the RSI and the MACD are reflecting a positive short-term bias, with the former rising above its 50 neutral mark and the latter climbing above its zero and signal lines.

The bottom of the Ichimoku cloud is the nearest one and if it gives way, the descending trendline that has been holding since late August may immediately come to the rescue around the 40 level. Not far above the 200-period SMA and the upper Bollinger band at 40.30 may also act before all attention turns to the swing high of 41.66 from August 18.

On the flip side, a decisive close below the 39.07 support area could see a test of the 20-period SMA at 38.54. Lower, the decline may pick up steam towards the key 36.12-36.62 supportive region, a break of which will signal a down-trending market. Alternatively, a rally above 43.55 would put oil futures back to a positive path.

In brief, WTI oil futures are looking for more recovery, with buying confidence expected to rise above 40.30. Otherwise, a pullback below 38.54 may confirm additional losses.

oil

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