Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures hover above SMAs in positive outlook


Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

WTI crude oil futures have been making higher highs and higher lows since October 2019 and yesterday the price touched a fresh eight-month high of 64.72, although it ended the day in the red. Today, the oil price is trying to recover some of the losses, remaining above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs).

The momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are currently supporting that positive momentum is likely to strengthen in the short-term. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is picking up speed above the 20 level, following the bullish cross within the %K and %D lines, while the RSI, although somewhat flat, is still standing above its 50 neutral mark.

An extension to the upside could initially move the price until the 64.72 resistance level before and then towards the 66.57 mark, identified by the peak on April 2019.

On the flipside, if the price weakens, it may find strong obstacle at the 40-SMA currently at 62.73 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 55.00 to 64.72 near 62.40.  More declines could next send the commodity towards the uptrend line near 61.50, while slightly lower the 38.2% Fibo of 61.00, which is near the 100-SMA could next act as support.

To sum up, WTI futures look positive in the short- and medium-terms.